Theo Johnson

{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11597",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:41:31.849098+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "11597",
    "name": "Theo Johnson",
    "team": "NYG",
    "pos": "TE",
    "age": 25,
    "exp": 2,
    "injury": "Out",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 2.43,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 2.4314444444444443,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 63,
    "adp": 262.8,
    "adp_pr": 38,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 105.3,
      "g": 15,
      "through_week": 16,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 74.0,
      "receptions": 45.0,
      "receiving_yards": 528.0,
      "receiving_tds": 5.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 25.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 16.7,
      "ppg": 7.02,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 7.1,
      "ypr": 11.7,
      "catch_pct": 60.8,
      "total_yd": 528.0,
      "ypg": 35.2,
      "touches": 45.0,
      "first_downs": 25.0,
      "xfp": 107.1,
      "xfp_diff": -1.8,
      "xfp_through_week": 16,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 86.7,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 3.06,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.94,
      "rec_adot": 8.07,
      "rec_air_share": 13.61,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.39,
      "rec_catch_pct": 60.81,
      "rec_drops": 5.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 6.8
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 13.5,
      "g": 4,
      "through_week": 5,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 9.0,
      "receptions": 4.0,
      "receiving_yards": 55.0,
      "receiving_tds": 1.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 3.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 6.3,
      "ppg": 3.38,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 6.1,
      "ypr": 13.8,
      "catch_pct": 44.4,
      "total_yd": 55.0,
      "ypg": 13.8,
      "touches": 4.0,
      "first_downs": 3.0,
      "xfp": 13.1,
      "xfp_diff": 0.4,
      "xfp_through_week": 5,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 34.4,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "11597",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T01:41:31.851732+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Theo Johnson out-produced this whole tier in 2025, 105 points and five touchdowns, and his 107 expected points say he earned nearly all of it. New York gave him 86.7 percent of the offensive snaps, fifth most among tight ends, with an 8.1 aDOT in the 86th percentile and a 14.7 percent target share, real downfield usage rather than checkdown work. His hands and separation are the worry: a 60.8 percent catch rate that ranked last among qualified tight ends, 11th percentile separation, and half a yard of YAC per catch given back against expectation, a contested-catch profile that needs volume to survive. Volume is exactly what the consensus projection takes away, cutting him to about 63 points at TE37, while half-PPR drafters pay 154 overall, TE25, well ahead of that forecast. I lean closer to the market than the model here, since near-every-down snap shares with 74 targets rarely evaporate without a roster explanation, but the price already assumes the role repeats and leaves nothing for the inefficiency.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Theo Johnson (shoulder) logs full practice Wednesday — It looks like the Giants will have Johnson available to play for them on Sunday, as he was able to log a full practice to start the week on Wednesday. He won't carry any fantasy value himself but should serve as a nice depth option for Jaxson Dart moving forward.",
      "latest_at": "2026-09-09T23:18:44+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-10T10:00:03.254896+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 1,
      "llm_weeks_out": null,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "logs full practice; available to play; nice depth option; shoulder",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-10T10:17:12.144823+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": {
      "status": "out",
      "exp_miss_next6": 3.500889051272683,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    },
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "out",
      "exp_miss_next6": 3.500889051272683,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}