Bucky Irving

{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11584",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:41:31.574119+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "11584",
    "name": "Bucky Irving",
    "team": "TB",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 24,
    "exp": 2,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 73.3,
    "ros_ppg": 14.47,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 14.47322222222222,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        8,
        9,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 200,
    "adp": 47.3,
    "adp_pr": 21,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 123.5,
      "g": 10,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 173.0,
      "rushing_yards": 588.0,
      "rushing_tds": 1.0,
      "targets": 35.0,
      "receptions": 30.0,
      "receiving_yards": 277.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 29.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 11.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 11.3,
      "ppg": 12.35,
      "ypc": 3.4,
      "ypt": 7.9,
      "ypr": 9.2,
      "catch_pct": 85.7,
      "total_yd": 865.0,
      "ypg": 86.5,
      "touches": 203.0,
      "first_downs": 40.0,
      "xfp": 132.1,
      "xfp_diff": -6.6,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 61.6,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 17.34,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.72,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.84,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.41,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.34,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 6.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 1.76,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.64,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 10.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 100.6,
      "g": 7,
      "through_week": 7,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 120.0,
      "rushing_yards": 558.0,
      "rushing_tds": 4.0,
      "targets": 23.0,
      "receptions": 18.0,
      "receiving_yards": 78.0,
      "receiving_tds": 1.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 28.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 4.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 11.6,
      "ppg": 14.37,
      "ypc": 4.7,
      "ypt": 3.4,
      "ypr": 4.3,
      "catch_pct": 78.3,
      "total_yd": 636.0,
      "ypg": 90.9,
      "touches": 138.0,
      "first_downs": 32.0,
      "xfp": 99.6,
      "xfp_diff": 3.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 7,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 64.0,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 21.67,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.91,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.31,
      "rush_efficiency": 3.57,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.41,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.12,
      "rush_yac_att": 2.52,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 16.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 4.3
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "11584",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T01:41:31.578553+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "stale",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Standard-scoring rooms still take Irving as the RB14 at pick 22 while half-PPR drafters let him slide to 37.6, and the cheaper price is reading the 2025 data more honestly. Everything about his rushing year cratered: 3.4 yards per carry in the 4th percentile, rush yards over expected of minus 0.74 per attempt, dead last among all 48 qualified backs, and just 1.76 yards before contact, which spreads real blame to Tampa Bay's blocking. His run paths were also among the longest at the position, 92nd percentile, so he spent the season bouncing runs sideways and getting nothing for the detours. The receiving value held, with six broken tackles after the catch (87th percentile) and an 82nd-percentile snap share across the ten games he managed, and he is still only 23. A 207-point projection slots him RB20, right where the half-PPR market already has him and far below the second-round standard price. Anyone paying the aggressive number is betting the efficiency collapse was injury and blocking noise rather than a genuine decline, and the before-contact figure supports about half of that argument.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Bucky Irving (glute) good to go Sunday  — Irving sat on the bench for the majority of the fourth quarter last week. He was limited in practice throughout the week and will be good to go on Sunday. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-02T17:13:20+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-02T19:00:23.249033+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 1,
      "llm_weeks_out": 0.0,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "good to go sunday; sat on bench; limited in practice; glute injury",
      "llm_role_change": -1,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-03T09:22:53.860373+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": null,
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "questionable",
      "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
      "as_of": "2026-10-02",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}