# Zay Flowers — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9997 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9997", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:17.451221+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "9997", "name": "Zay Flowers", "team": "BAL", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 76.4, "ros_ppg": 16.02, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 16.017666666666667, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 201, "adp": 42.4, "adp_pr": 19, "ly": { "pts": 200.3, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 10.0, "rushing_yards": 62.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 118.0, "receptions": 86.0, "receiving_yards": 1211.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 4.0, "receiving_first_downs": 48.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 29.0, "ppg": 11.78, "ypc": 6.2, "ypt": 10.3, "ypr": 14.1, "catch_pct": 72.9, "total_yd": 1273.0, "ypg": 74.9, "touches": 96.0, "first_downs": 52.0, "xfp": 169.1, "xfp_diff": 37.2, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 86.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.52, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.49, "rec_adot": 9.92, "rec_air_share": 34.72, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.24, "rec_catch_pct": 72.88, "rec_drops": 7.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 9.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 102.2, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 3.0, "rushing_yards": 34.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 53.0, "receptions": 40.0, "receiving_yards": 608.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 24.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 31.4, "ppg": 17.03, "ypc": 11.3, "ypt": 11.5, "ypr": 15.2, "catch_pct": 75.5, "total_yd": 642.0, "ypg": 107.0, "touches": 43.0, "first_downs": 26.0, "xfp": 68.2, "xfp_diff": 34.0, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 65.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.05, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.07, "rec_adot": 7.86, "rec_air_share": 26.08, "rec_yac_above_exp": 3.18, "rec_catch_pct": 75.47, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.7 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "9997", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:17.454004+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Baltimore projects as the best scoring environment in football by early Vegas lines, a league-leading 27-point average implied total, and Flowers owns a 29 percent target share in it, fifth among qualified receivers. His 86-1211-5 line in 2025 came with real receiving polish: a 73 percent catch rate (91st percentile), 3.58 yards of average separation (89th), and 10.3 yards per target. The caution flag is that he outscored his usage by 31 points, one of the five biggest overshoots at the position, and gaps like that usually shrink. Two things soften the worry: the surplus came from yardage efficiency rather than a touchdown spike, since he scored only five times, and the separation and catch-rate numbers argue the efficiency is repeatable skill. He also led wideouts with three lost fumbles, which is worth knowing but probably not predictive. At WR21 in half-PPR drafts against a WR13 consensus projection, the market is charging less than the profile reads, and standard-format rooms let him slip four picks further.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Zay Flowers (foot) expected to play on Sunday — If Flowers suits up, he will provide backup QB Tyler Huntley with a more than capable target downfield in a Ravens passing attack that lacks much punch behind him. He will be needed to prevent the offense from being one-dimensional, especially with the Falcons offense picking up steam since the return of Michael Penix.", "latest_at": "2026-10-11T12:12:49+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "expected to play; more than capable target; one-dimensional offense; foot injury; backup qb", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T19:08:19.768545+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-11", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```