# Quentin Johnston — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9754 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9754", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.924408+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "9754", "name": "Quentin Johnston", "team": "LAC", "pos": "WR", "age": 25, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 5.66, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 5.657500000000001, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 144, "adp": 102.7, "adp_pr": 42, "ly": { "pts": 145.7, "g": 13, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 7.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 84.0, "receptions": 51.0, "receiving_yards": 735.0, "receiving_tds": 8.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 27.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 20.1, "ppg": 11.21, "ypc": 3.5, "ypt": 8.8, "ypr": 14.4, "catch_pct": 60.7, "total_yd": 742.0, "ypg": 57.1, "touches": 53.0, "first_downs": 27.0, "xfp": 126.5, "xfp_diff": 21.2, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 76.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.4, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.3, "rec_adot": 12.3, "rec_air_share": 23.4, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.87, "rec_catch_pct": 60.71, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 4.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.4 }, "ytd": { "pts": 20.8, "g": 5, "through_week": 6, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 3.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 22.0, "receptions": 8.0, "receiving_yards": 165.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 5.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 14.4, "ppg": 4.16, "ypc": 1.5, "ypt": 7.5, "ypr": 20.6, "catch_pct": 36.4, "total_yd": 168.0, "ypg": 33.6, "touches": 10.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 30.8, "xfp_diff": -10.0, "xfp_through_week": 6, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 80.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.68, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.63, "rec_adot": 14.52, "rec_air_share": 22.27, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.27, "rec_catch_pct": 36.36, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 13.6 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "9754", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.927290+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Eight touchdowns on 84 targets is the number that makes Quentin Johnston's 2025 glow, and it's also the number to distrust. His 11.2 points per game over 13 outings graded in the 86th percentile, but the expected-points model valued his actual usage at 127 and he scored 146, a 19-point overshoot in the 90th percentile that leaned on a scoring rate nobody sustains. The coverage numbers underneath stayed rough, 8th-percentile cushion, 16th-percentile separation and a catch rate in the bottom third, so he was winning contested balls and end-zone throws, two of the least stable skills a receiver can lean on year over year. Encouragingly, the market appears to have priced the giveback in advance, with his ADP of 103 and WR46 in half-PPR sitting below a WR41 consensus projection that already trims him to 6.9 touchdowns. The Chargers strengthen the soft-landing case, carrying a top-12 implied team total on early lines with Vegas posting 28.5 on them for Week 1 against Arizona. Ninth-round shares of a touchdown-dependent starter in a good offense are a hard way to get hurt, provided he's drafted as a spike-week WR4 and not as somebody's every-week answer.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Quentin Johnston (chest) expected to be limited in practice — \"We'll see where he's at the end of the week,\" Harbaugh said. Johnston will have a chance to return in Week 6. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-13T18:48:34+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 2.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "limited in practice; chance to return week 6; we'll see where; chest injury", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:03:10.065756+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 2.157182798348736, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```