{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9753","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:11.455606+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9753","name":"Zach Charbonnet","team":"SEA","pos":"RB","age":25,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":22.7,"ros_ppg":8.85,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":8.853333333333333,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":108,"adp":143.0,"adp_pr":47,"ly":{"pts":169.4,"g":16,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":184.0,"rushing_yards":730.0,"rushing_tds":12.0,"targets":24.0,"receptions":20.0,"receiving_yards":144.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":49.0,"receiving_first_downs":7.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":5.5,"ppg":10.59,"ypc":4.0,"ypt":6.0,"ypr":7.2,"catch_pct":83.3,"total_yd":874.0,"ypg":54.6,"touches":204.0,"first_downs":56.0,"xfp":171.3,"xfp_diff":-1.9,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":48.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":35.33,"rush_time_to_los":3.07,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.31,"rush_efficiency":4.31,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.4,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.13,"rush_yac_att":1.84,"rush_broken_tackles":14.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.2},"ytd":null,"adv_ytd":null},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9753","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:11.504060+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"current","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Twelve rushing touchdowns made Charbonnet's 2025, and that is precisely the thing the projection refuses to repeat. His 10.6 points per game landed within two points of his usage-based expectation, which means the touchdown-rich role, and not efficiency luck, drove the scoring. The rest of the rushing profile runs ordinary to concerning: 4.0 yards per carry against a 94th-percentile stacked-box rate, roughly average rush yards over expected, and a patient, east-west style that ranked 96th percentile in time to the line of scrimmage. The consensus cuts him to 5.6 touchdowns and RB43 at 113 points, a 56-point haircut from last season, while the half-PPR market takes him at pick 123 (RB42), essentially agreeing with the haircut. He carries a questionable tag into camp, though with no projected missed games. Seattle's offense is a real asset at ninth by early implied totals, and his top-two-week concentration of 26 percent says the production was steadier than most backs going in this range. The price is honest, which makes him boring in the useful sense, a stable RB4 whose upside case needs either the touchdowns to defy regression or the role ahead of him to open up.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Zach Charbonnet (knee) off injury report Monday  — Charbonnet will be ready to make his season debut. He'll be a touchdown dependent flex play in his first game back for fantasy managers. ","latest_at":"2026-10-31T21:03:30+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"off injury report; season debut; touchdown dependent flex; first game back; knee","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-31T23:12:19.919291+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.563580908816535,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.563580908816535,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}