# Aaron Rodgers — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/96 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/96", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:13.047925+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "96", "name": "Aaron Rodgers", "team": "PIT", "pos": "QB", "age": 42, "exp": 21, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 1.0, "ros_ppg": 14.32, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 14.319444444444445, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 215, "adp": 235.5, "adp_pr": 28, "ly": { "pts": 224.6, "g": 16, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 3322.0, "passing_tds": 24.0, "interceptions": 7.0, "carries": 21.0, "rushing_yards": 61.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 1.0, "receptions": 1.0, "receiving_yards": -9.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 144.0, "rushing_first_downs": 5.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 0.2, "ppg": 14.04, "ypc": 2.9, "ypt": -9.0, "ypr": -9.0, "catch_pct": 100.0, "total_yd": 3374.0, "ypg": 210.9, "touches": 22.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 13.0, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 95.7, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.59, "pass_adot": 6.0, "pass_aggressiveness": 14.46, "pass_cpoe": -0.95, "pass_air_to_sticks": -3.03, "pass_rating": 94.8, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 17.4, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 18.3, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 110.3, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 1699.0, "passing_tds": 13.0, "interceptions": 5.0, "carries": 12.0, "rushing_yards": 23.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 76.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 15.76, "ypc": 1.9, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1722.0, "ypg": 246.0, "touches": 12.0, "first_downs": 2.0, "xfp": 5.1, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 99.0, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.74, "pass_adot": 6.98, "pass_aggressiveness": 16.35, "pass_cpoe": -1.34, "pass_air_to_sticks": -1.91, "pass_rating": 88.89, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 20.2, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.5, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "96", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:13.052232+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Nobody in football got the ball out faster or shorter than Rodgers last season. His 2.59-second release, 5.95 aDOT, and minus-3.1 air yards to sticks all ranked dead last among qualified quarterbacks, the fully realized version of the quick-game survival style, and it still worked, producing a 24-to-7 touchdown-to-interception line, a 94.8 rating in the top third, and a bottom-sixth pressure rate because the ball left before the rush arrived. The cost is a hard ceiling, since at 42 with 61 rushing yards all season, 14.5 points per game is close to the most that style can pay. Single-quarterback drafters have no reason to be involved, and they mostly are not. The live pricing gap is in superflex, where he goes QB39 at pick 220 while the consensus projection says QB29 and 223 points, ten spots of projected starter available in the last round.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Aaron Rodgers will not play Friday — Rodgers has rarely played in the preseason over the past decade, and that trend may continue as he enters his age-42 season as the Steelers' QB1.", "latest_at": "2026-08-19T18:03:37+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-24T10:00:03.418357+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": 1.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "will not play friday; rarely played preseason; age-42 season; qb1", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-08-24T10:15:17.416903+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```