{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9511","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:35.621364+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9511","name":"Keaton Mitchell","team":"LAC","pos":"RB","age":24,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":6.04,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":6.0448,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":77,"adp":164.5,"adp_pr":53,"ly":{"pts":50.9,"g":13,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":59.0,"rushing_yards":341.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":12.0,"receptions":9.0,"receiving_yards":63.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":16.0,"receiving_first_downs":2.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":4.0,"ppg":3.92,"ypc":5.8,"ypt":5.2,"ypr":7.0,"catch_pct":75.0,"total_yd":404.0,"ypg":31.1,"touches":68.0,"first_downs":18.0,"xfp":45.4,"xfp_diff":5.5,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":17.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":3.61,"rush_yac_att":2.17,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":8.3},"ytd":{"pts":31.1,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":35.0,"rushing_yards":139.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":15.0,"receptions":12.0,"receiving_yards":52.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":3.0,"receiving_first_downs":4.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":8.6,"ppg":5.18,"ypc":4.0,"ypt":3.5,"ypr":4.3,"catch_pct":80.0,"total_yd":191.0,"ypg":31.8,"touches":47.0,"first_downs":7.0,"xfp":33.1,"xfp_diff":-2.0,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":31.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":5.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.7}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9511","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:28:35.625241+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Context did a lot of the work in Mitchell's 5.8 yards per carry, the best mark among qualified backs in 2025. His 3.61 yards before contact per attempt also led the position, meaning Baltimore's blocking and spacing handed him more room than anyone else got before a defender arrived, though the 2.17 he added after contact lands in the 74th percentile and reads like genuine burst. The sample stays thin either way, 59 carries on 17.5 percent of snaps. Los Angeles lists him second on the depth chart now, in an offense Vegas ranks 12th by implied totals, and the market has drifted ahead of the numbers on the strength of it: RB56 in half-PPR against a consensus projection of 64.8 points, RB62, with 11.5 projected receptions signaling that nobody expects passing-down work. A modest premium in round 14 for the chance the speed translates and the role grows is a reasonable spend. Just stay clear-eyed that the efficiency he's being drafted on was substantially manufactured by the offense he left.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Keaton Mitchell (ankle) without injury designation for Sunday — The veteran is going to be good to go on Sunday, despite being listed on the injury report throughout the week due to an ankle issue. He will continue to play second fiddle behind Omarion Hampton on this offense, although his exact snap share remains worth keeping an eye on this week.","latest_at":"2026-10-02T21:22:39+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-04T19:00:08.456353+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"good to go; ankle issue; second fiddle; snap share; without injury designation","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-04T19:04:02.632960+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-02","source":"curves-v1"}}}