{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9501","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:15.948441+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9501","name":"DeMario Douglas","team":"NE","pos":"WR","age":25,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":5.48,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":5.478111111111111,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":66,"adp":697.0,"adp_pr":474,"ly":{"pts":80.3,"g":16,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":7.0,"rushing_yards":21.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":46.0,"receptions":31.0,"receiving_yards":447.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":2.0,"receiving_first_downs":17.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":9.9,"ppg":5.02,"ypc":3.0,"ypt":9.7,"ypr":14.4,"catch_pct":67.4,"total_yd":468.0,"ypg":29.2,"touches":38.0,"first_downs":19.0,"xfp":71.8,"xfp_diff":8.5,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":25.9,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.96,"rec_avg_cushion":6.67,"rec_adot":9.96,"rec_air_share":10.39,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.75,"rec_catch_pct":67.39,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.5},"ytd":{"pts":53.1,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":34.0,"receptions":23.0,"receiving_yards":256.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":13.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":16.3,"ppg":7.59,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.5,"ypr":11.1,"catch_pct":67.6,"total_yd":256.0,"ypg":36.6,"touches":23.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":49.7,"xfp_diff":5.4,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":55.3,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.86,"rec_avg_cushion":6.46,"rec_adot":11.26,"rec_air_share":19.0,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.13,"rec_catch_pct":67.65,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":2.9}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9501","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:15.951078+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"unavailable","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Snap count is the entire argument about Douglas. New England played him on 25.9 percent of the offensive snaps in 2025, one of the very lowest rates among qualified receivers, and he still banked 80.3 points across 16 games by squeezing the scraps: 98th percentile separation, 9.7 yards per target in the 86th percentile, a 67 percent catch rate, 76th percentile YAC over expected, and seven carries mixed in, a rushing sprinkle most receivers never get. He beat his expected points by 8.5, a top-fifth conversion, so on a per-snap basis very few players in this ADP range produced more. The counterargument is that the Patriots watched all of it and still list him fourth among their receivers for 2026, and the 50-point consensus projection assumes the cap holds. At pick 357 the bet is that a new season redistributes snaps toward the player who was demonstrably good on his, and against the other fliers at that price, a proven efficiency profile with a usage problem beats profiles that have neither.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"DeMario Douglas catches one pass in loss Sunday — Douglas had a tough time connecting with QB Drake Maye on Sunday, catching just one of his five targets for a 38-yard gain. He will continue to see a solid amount of targets on a week-to-week basis moving forward but carries very little fantasy upside for the foreseeable future.","latest_at":"2026-09-28T16:52:04+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-29T19:00:23.129722+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"catches one pass; solid amount of targets; very little fantasy upside; week-to-week basis; tough time connecting","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-29T19:19:56.458229+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":null}}