# Josh Downs — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9500 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9500", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:21:08.456120+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "9500", "name": "Josh Downs", "team": "IND", "pos": "WR", "age": 25, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 7.8, "ros_ppg": 8.4, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 8.397333333333334, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 129, "adp": 113.9, "adp_pr": 47, "ly": { "pts": 109.4, "g": 16, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": -2.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 88.0, "receptions": 58.0, "receiving_yards": 566.0, "receiving_tds": 4.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 36.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 17.7, "ppg": 6.84, "ypc": -1.0, "ypt": 6.4, "ypr": 9.8, "catch_pct": 65.9, "total_yd": 564.0, "ypg": 35.2, "touches": 60.0, "first_downs": 36.0, "xfp": 116.8, "xfp_diff": -7.4, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 58.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.63, "rec_avg_cushion": 7.17, "rec_adot": 7.79, "rec_air_share": 15.97, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.12, "rec_catch_pct": 65.91, "rec_drops": 4.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.5 }, "ytd": { "pts": 44.4, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 7.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 46.0, "receptions": 26.0, "receiving_yards": 307.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 18.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 20.4, "ppg": 6.34, "ypc": 7.0, "ypt": 6.7, "ypr": 11.8, "catch_pct": 56.5, "total_yd": 314.0, "ypg": 44.9, "touches": 27.0, "first_downs": 18.0, "xfp": 63.5, "xfp_diff": -19.1, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 81.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.69, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.59, "rec_adot": 10.77, "rec_air_share": 28.29, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.86, "rec_catch_pct": 56.52, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.2 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "9500", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:21:08.459319+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Everything about Downs' 2025 profile says short-area slot: a 7.74 aDOT near the bottom of the position, an air-yards share in the 25th percentile, 9.8 yards per reception that ranked 78th of 84 qualifiers, and minus-2 rushing yards for the season. Round 11 in half-PPR is a sane price for the archetype, and the reception-heavy shape is why PPR drafters take him at WR49 while standard waits until WR56. He caught 58 of 88 balls last year and turned a 16.6% target share into 6.8 points per game, a bit under what the usage should have produced. The number to watch is his 59% snap share, because a projection of 74.9 catches for 722 yards assumes he either plays more or gets peppered whenever he's out there. Catches, not yards or touchdowns, will have to carry whatever value shows up, since nothing in the charting suggests a downfield expansion is coming.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Josh Downs leads team in receiving Sunday — The Colts needed Downs to step up on Sunday night, and he did just that, delivering a team-high 72 yards in a narrow loss to the Chiefs. He seems primed to improve as a fantasy option in the near future with Alec Pierce (heel) seemingly set to miss some time after aggravating an injury.", "latest_at": "2026-09-21T16:19:04+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "team-high 72 yards; leads team in receiving; primed to improve; alec pierce miss; aggravating an injury", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:19:59.146544+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-09-09", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```