# Marvin Mims Jr. — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9494 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9494", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:25.429768+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "9494", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "team": "DEN", "pos": "WR", "age": 24, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 3.68, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 3.6754444444444445, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 54, "adp": 700.8, "adp_pr": 494, "ly": { "pts": 70.5, "g": 15, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 12.0, "rushing_yards": 78.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 51.0, "receptions": 37.0, "receiving_yards": 322.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 3.0, "receiving_first_downs": 14.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 9.8, "ppg": 4.7, "ypc": 6.5, "ypt": 6.3, "ypr": 8.7, "catch_pct": 72.5, "total_yd": 400.0, "ypg": 26.7, "touches": 49.0, "first_downs": 17.0, "xfp": 71.7, "xfp_diff": -1.2, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 36.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 4.52, "rec_avg_cushion": 7.85, "rec_adot": 9.05, "rec_air_share": 10.54, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.47, "rec_catch_pct": 72.55, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 12.3, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 6.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 11.0, "receptions": 7.0, "receiving_yards": 82.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 2.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 8.1, "ppg": 2.46, "ypc": 3.0, "ypt": 7.5, "ypr": 11.7, "catch_pct": 63.6, "total_yd": 88.0, "ypg": 17.6, "touches": 9.0, "first_downs": 2.0, "xfp": 14.4, "xfp_diff": -2.1, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 23.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "9494", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:25.432682+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "No receiver in football saw more open grass than Marvin Mims in 2025. His average cushion was the largest among all qualified wideouts, his 4.53 yards of separation ranked second, and he caught 72.6 percent of his targets. Those numbers describe a schemed player rather than a coverage-beater: Denver handed him 12 carries, a 97th-percentile figure for a receiver, manufactured his touches, and watched defenses concede space, and he still averaged only 8.7 yards a catch, bottom five percent at the position. A 36.9 percent snap share, second percentile at the position, explains the rest, since all those highlight touches added up to just 70.5 half-PPR points across 15 games. The market keeps paying for the highlights anyway, taking him around WR79 near pick 209 while the consensus projects 55 points and WR112, a thirty-plus-spot disagreement in the wrong direction. Denver's implied totals rank 25th, so the offense isn't going to lift him either. Until August practice reports show him playing real snaps, he's a name the market likes considerably better than the numbers do.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) off injury report Sunday — Mims remains off the fantasy radar in his current role. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-03T05:57:58+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-04T19:00:08.456353+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 0, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "off injury report; remains off fantasy radar; current role", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-04T19:06:09.757973+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637, "as_of": "2026-10-05", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```