{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9493","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:29:42.884538+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9493","name":"Puka Nacua","team":"LAR","pos":"WR","age":25,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":93.1,"ros_ppg":17.88,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":17.876555555555555,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":281,"adp":6.0,"adp_pr":2,"ly":{"pts":310.5,"g":16,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":10.0,"rushing_yards":105.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":166.0,"receptions":129.0,"receiving_yards":1715.0,"receiving_tds":10.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":5.0,"receiving_first_downs":80.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":30.3,"ppg":19.41,"ypc":10.5,"ypt":10.3,"ypr":13.3,"catch_pct":77.7,"total_yd":1820.0,"ypg":113.8,"touches":139.0,"first_downs":85.0,"xfp":233.6,"xfp_diff":78.9,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":68.2,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.83,"rec_avg_cushion":6.03,"rec_adot":8.94,"rec_air_share":27.9,"rec_yac_above_exp":1.32,"rec_catch_pct":77.71,"rec_drops":5.0,"rec_broken_tackles":14.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":3.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.0},"ytd":{"pts":91.1,"g":5,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":5.0,"rushing_yards":21.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":62.0,"receptions":45.0,"receiving_yards":485.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":22.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":32.3,"ppg":18.22,"ypc":4.2,"ypt":7.8,"ypr":10.8,"catch_pct":72.6,"total_yd":506.0,"ypg":101.2,"touches":50.0,"first_downs":23.0,"xfp":89.6,"xfp_diff":1.5,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":84.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.9,"rec_avg_cushion":6.39,"rec_adot":8.85,"rec_air_share":25.54,"rec_yac_above_exp":1.94,"rec_catch_pct":72.58,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":5.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.2}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9493","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:29:42.889145+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Puka Nacua led all wideouts with 310.5 points last year, and the uncomfortable part of his price is how he got there. His usage graded out around 234 expected points, meaning he beat opportunity by 77, the largest gap at the position, and gaps that size tend to give a lot back the following season. Look at what drove it before writing it off as luck: a 77.7 percent catch rate that ranked second among qualified receivers, 1.34 yards of after-catch production over expected, a league-high 14 broken tackles on receptions, and 105 rushing yards folded in. Those read like repeatable traits, though even genuine skill rarely sustains a 1.33 ratio of actual points to expected. The consensus already applies the haircut, projecting 281 points against last year's 310 while still making him the top receiver by projected total. One wrinkle worth knowing is that he played just 68 percent of the offensive snaps, middling for an alpha, so his target volume comes from extreme concentration in the routes he does run. At 4.8 overall you are paying for the haircut season rather than the repeat, which is how I'd want it.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Puka Nacua draws 24 targets in Week 5 loss — Nacua drew an insane 24 targets, putting him third all-time in a single game in the NFL behind only Brandon Marshall (28) and Chris Chambers (26). The veteran wideout also found the end zone on a two-yard pass from Matthew Stafford in the fourth quarter. Nacua now has 31 catches for 337 yards and one touchdown in just three games this season. He will be a top-three fantasy WR in Week 6 vs. the Cardinals.","latest_at":"2026-10-13T10:00:32+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"24 targets; top-three fantasy wr; third all-time; two-yard pass; week 6","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:11:56.972267+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-05","source":"curves-v1"}}}