# Jaxon Smith-Njigba — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9488 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9488", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:23:10.100088+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "9488", "name": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "team": "SEA", "pos": "WR", "age": 24, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 120.3, "ros_ppg": 20.9, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 20.898111111111113, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 270, "adp": 8.7, "adp_pr": 4, "ly": { "pts": 300.4, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 7.0, "rushing_yards": 36.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 163.0, "receptions": 119.0, "receiving_yards": 1793.0, "receiving_tds": 10.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 81.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 35.8, "ppg": 17.67, "ypc": 5.1, "ypt": 11.0, "ypr": 15.1, "catch_pct": 73.0, "total_yd": 1829.0, "ypg": 107.6, "touches": 126.0, "first_downs": 83.0, "xfp": 234.8, "xfp_diff": 67.6, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 77.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.02, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.31, "rec_adot": 11.27, "rec_air_share": 48.56, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.79, "rec_catch_pct": 73.01, "rec_drops": 5.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.1 }, "ytd": { "pts": 167.2, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 14.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 3.0, "rushing_yards": 29.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 78.0, "receptions": 58.0, "receiving_yards": 867.0, "receiving_tds": 8.0, "passing_first_downs": 1.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 43.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 36.3, "ppg": 23.89, "ypc": 9.7, "ypt": 11.1, "ypr": 14.9, "catch_pct": 74.4, "total_yd": 910.0, "ypg": 130.0, "touches": 61.0, "first_downs": 45.0, "xfp": 117.7, "xfp_diff": 48.9, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 83.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.55, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.21, "rec_adot": 10.68, "rec_air_share": 51.3, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.83, "rec_catch_pct": 74.36, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.8 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "9488", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:23:10.105182+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Smith-Njigba's hold on Seattle's passing game had no equal last year: a 35.9 percent target share and a 48.6 percent air-yards share, both first at the position, a rare double since most target hogs feed underneath while most air-yards leaders are lower-volume deep threats. He did both at an 11.3-yard aDOT and still caught 73 percent of it, which is how you produce a league-best 1,793 receiving yards. The caution flag is a plus-66 gap between his 300 actual points and 235 expected from usage, second-largest at the position, built on 11.0 yards per target that will be hard to repeat. Two things soften it: the yardage came on real depth rather than YAC variance, and the target share is extreme enough that even meaningful efficiency regression leaves a top-five receiver. Seattle's implied totals sit ninth on early lines, decent rather than great. The projection lands at 269 points and WR3, exactly where the market prices him at a 7.3 ADP, which makes this sticker price for the most defensible usage profile in the elite tier.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) limited on estimated practice report Tuesday — Smith-Njigba got the same designation on Monday. He should be good to go for Thursday's game against the Broncos. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-13T23:43:42+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 0, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "ankle limited; limited on estimated practice; good to go; thursday's game; same designation", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:10:05.048165+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```