{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9488","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:16.029074+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9488","name":"Jaxon Smith-Njigba","team":"SEA","pos":"WR","age":24,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":120.3,"ros_ppg":20.9,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":20.898111111111113,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":270,"adp":8.7,"adp_pr":4,"ly":{"pts":300.4,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":7.0,"rushing_yards":36.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":163.0,"receptions":119.0,"receiving_yards":1793.0,"receiving_tds":10.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":2.0,"receiving_first_downs":81.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":35.8,"ppg":17.67,"ypc":5.1,"ypt":11.0,"ypr":15.1,"catch_pct":73.0,"total_yd":1829.0,"ypg":107.6,"touches":126.0,"first_downs":83.0,"xfp":234.8,"xfp_diff":67.6,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":77.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.02,"rec_avg_cushion":6.31,"rec_adot":11.27,"rec_air_share":48.56,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.79,"rec_catch_pct":73.01,"rec_drops":5.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":1.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.1},"ytd":{"pts":167.2,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":14.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":3.0,"rushing_yards":29.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":78.0,"receptions":58.0,"receiving_yards":867.0,"receiving_tds":8.0,"passing_first_downs":1.0,"rushing_first_downs":2.0,"receiving_first_downs":43.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":36.3,"ppg":23.89,"ypc":9.7,"ypt":11.1,"ypr":14.9,"catch_pct":74.4,"total_yd":910.0,"ypg":130.0,"touches":61.0,"first_downs":45.0,"xfp":117.7,"xfp_diff":48.9,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":83.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.55,"rec_avg_cushion":5.21,"rec_adot":10.68,"rec_air_share":51.3,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.83,"rec_catch_pct":74.36,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.8}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9488","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:16.034389+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Smith-Njigba's hold on Seattle's passing game had no equal last year: a 35.9 percent target share and a 48.6 percent air-yards share, both first at the position, a rare double since most target hogs feed underneath while most air-yards leaders are lower-volume deep threats. He did both at an 11.3-yard aDOT and still caught 73 percent of it, which is how you produce a league-best 1,793 receiving yards. The caution flag is a plus-66 gap between his 300 actual points and 235 expected from usage, second-largest at the position, built on 11.0 yards per target that will be hard to repeat. Two things soften it: the yardage came on real depth rather than YAC variance, and the target share is extreme enough that even meaningful efficiency regression leaves a top-five receiver. Seattle's implied totals sit ninth on early lines, decent rather than great. The projection lands at 269 points and WR3, exactly where the market prices him at a 7.3 ADP, which makes this sticker price for the most defensible usage profile in the elite tier.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) limited on estimated practice report Tuesday  — Smith-Njigba got the same designation on Monday. He should be good to go for Thursday's game against the Broncos.  ","latest_at":"2026-10-13T23:43:42+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.5,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"ankle limited; limited on estimated practice; good to go; thursday's game; same designation","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:10:05.048165+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}