{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/9481","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:14.764488+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"9481","name":"Luke Musgrave","team":"GB","pos":"TE","age":26,"exp":3,"injury":"PUP","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":1.18,"games_left":8,"projection":{"ros_ppg":1.1823088235294117,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[9,10],"remaining_games":8},"proj":24,"adp":687.3,"adp_pr":234,"ly":{"pts":37.2,"g":13,"through_week":16,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":31.0,"receptions":24.0,"receiving_yards":252.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":12.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":8.3,"ppg":2.86,"ypc":null,"ypt":8.1,"ypr":10.5,"catch_pct":77.4,"total_yd":252.0,"ypg":19.4,"touches":24.0,"first_downs":12.0,"xfp":38.4,"xfp_diff":-1.2,"xfp_through_week":16,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":40.1,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.2},"ytd":null,"adv_ytd":null},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"9481","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:14.782008+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Green Bay has now seen three seasons of Musgrave, and the most recent one produced a 40 percent snap rate and 2.4 targets per game. His 2025 line of 24 catches for 252 yards with no touchdowns across 13 games landed almost exactly on his expected output, 37.2 points actual against 38.4 from usage, so there's no hidden efficiency story waiting to surface. He broke zero tackles and never topped 7.2 points in a week. The consensus projection of 41 points at TE53 against an ADP of 379 says the models and the market have both settled on the same modest read. The offense itself is decent, 11th by implied team totals, which keeps a late flier theoretically alive, and he enters camp carrying a questionable tag that so far isn't expected to cost him games.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Luke Musgrave (neck) expected to play at some point this season — Musgrave does not hold a clear timetable to return as he works his way back from a neck injury. Jonnu Smith will backup Tucker Kraft to begin the season. ","latest_at":"2026-09-01T17:02:20+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-02T10:00:03.726756+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":6.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"neck injury; no clear timetable; expected to play; work his way back; musgrave does not hold","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-10T10:31:19.542667+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"pup","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"pup","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}