# Jake Tonges — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8698 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8698", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:22:41.721735+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8698", "name": "Jake Tonges", "team": "SF", "pos": "TE", "age": 27, "exp": 4, "injury": "IR", "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 1.75, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 1.7494117647058824, "source": "fallback", "captured_at": null, "covered_weeks": [], "missing_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 30, "adp": 253.0, "adp_pr": 34, "ly": { "pts": 76.3, "g": 10, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 46.0, "receptions": 34.0, "receiving_yards": 293.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 21.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 13.0, "ppg": 7.63, "ypc": null, "ypt": 6.4, "ypr": 8.6, "catch_pct": 73.9, "total_yd": 293.0, "ypg": 29.3, "touches": 34.0, "first_downs": 21.0, "xfp": 63.0, "xfp_diff": 13.3, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 33.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.58, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.86, "rec_adot": 5.3, "rec_air_share": 5.95, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.1, "rec_catch_pct": 73.91, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 }, "ytd": null, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 12.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8698", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:22:41.734219+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Jake Tonges averaged 7.6 points a game last season, 19th among tight ends, and almost none of the underlying profile supports it. San Francisco played him on 33 percent of the offensive snaps, a 3rd percentile share, with a 5.9 percent air-yards share that was just as thin, and his five touchdowns on 46 targets pushed him 13.3 points past what the usage was worth, a 1.21 overperformance ratio of the kind that shrinks. The hands were genuinely flawless, zero drops, and the 49ers' 25.4 implied total ranks seventh, so the spike weeks were real when they happened. The price is where this falls apart, because standard drafters still pay 177 overall, TE33, for a player the consensus projection puts 55th at the position with about 38 points, one of the widest market-versus-projection gaps in this range, with a questionable tag hanging over camp besides. A 15th-round pick on a part-timer's touchdown season mostly buys last year's box scores.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Jake Tonges (knee) to miss remainder of season — Tonges suffered a knee injury in the team's season opener last week, and it has been officially diagnosed as a torn MCL. He had surgery to repair it and is set to miss the remainder of the season while he recovers. This is a significant hit to San Francisco's depth on offense, with the team now needing Luke Farrell to step up as the TE2 behind George Kittle, who himself is still getting back to form after a lengthy injury recovery this offseason.", "latest_at": "2026-09-16T19:46:52+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-17T09:00:23.560131+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 3, "llm_weeks_out": 18.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "torn mcl; miss the remainder; significant hit to depth; step up as te2; season opener", "llm_role_change": -1, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-17T09:00:26.222763+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" }, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```