# Jaylen Warren — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8228 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8228", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:31.889391+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8228", "name": "Jaylen Warren", "team": "PIT", "pos": "RB", "age": 27, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 61.8, "ros_ppg": 13.2, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 13.195444444444446, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 175, "adp": 68.6, "adp_pr": 27, "ly": { "pts": 197.1, "g": 16, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 211.0, "rushing_yards": 958.0, "rushing_tds": 6.0, "targets": 45.0, "receptions": 40.0, "receiving_yards": 333.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 53.0, "receiving_first_downs": 13.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 9.0, "ppg": 12.32, "ypc": 4.5, "ypt": 7.4, "ypr": 8.3, "catch_pct": 88.9, "total_yd": 1291.0, "ypg": 80.7, "touches": 251.0, "first_downs": 66.0, "xfp": 194.8, "xfp_diff": 2.3, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 50.8, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 31.75, "rush_time_to_los": 2.88, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.8, "rush_efficiency": 3.72, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.41, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 9.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.15, "rush_yac_att": 2.34, "rush_broken_tackles": 23.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.2 }, "ytd": { "pts": 107.5, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 102.0, "rushing_yards": 561.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 34.0, "receptions": 24.0, "receiving_yards": 294.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 30.0, "receiving_first_downs": 9.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 13.8, "ppg": 15.36, "ypc": 5.5, "ypt": 8.6, "ypr": 12.2, "catch_pct": 70.6, "total_yd": 855.0, "ypg": 122.1, "touches": 126.0, "first_downs": 39.0, "xfp": 90.1, "xfp_diff": 19.4, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 74.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 22.55, "rush_time_to_los": 2.78, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 1.46, "rush_efficiency": 3.31, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.51, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 8.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.82, "rush_yac_att": 2.68, "rush_broken_tackles": 12.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8228", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:31.899420+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Few profiles available in the sixth round look as complete as Warren's did in 2025. He finished 16th among backs in total scoring at 197.1 points, caught 88.9 percent of his targets at 7.4 yards per target, both top-three among qualified backs, broke nine tackles as a receiver and 23 as a runner, each in the mid-90s percentile, and posted 0.86 rush yards over expected per attempt while facing stacked boxes at an 88th-percentile clip. His scoring landed within three points of what his opportunity predicted, so none of it depended on luck. The market takes him at RB27, ADP 67, and the projection concurs at RB28 with 172 points, both of which quietly assume Pittsburgh trims his 211 carries. That could happen, and at 27 he is not a growth story. A back who just produced nearly 1,300 total yards with elite contact balance in every phase, priced eleven spots below his actual finish, is still a pick that tends to age well if the assumed haircut never arrives.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Jaylen Warren labeled 'featured player' by Steelers HC Mike McCarthy — Warren has continued to play very well in the absence of Dowdle. Even when Dowdle makes his return, Warren will remain a steady RB2 for fantasy managers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-12T19:10:14+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "featured player; play very well; absence of dowdle; steady rb2; remains a steady", "llm_role_change": 1, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T19:06:22.729781+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-09-27", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```