# Jalen Nailor — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8180 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8180", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:33.042957+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8180", "name": "Jalen Nailor", "team": "LV", "pos": "WR", "age": 27, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 2.93, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 2.9276666666666666, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 105, "adp": 168.4, "adp_pr": 59, "ly": { "pts": 84.2, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 13.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 53.0, "receptions": 29.0, "receiving_yards": 444.0, "receiving_tds": 4.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 1.0, "receiving_first_downs": 23.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 11.3, "ppg": 4.95, "ypc": 6.5, "ypt": 8.4, "ypr": 15.3, "catch_pct": 54.7, "total_yd": 457.0, "ypg": 26.9, "touches": 31.0, "first_downs": 24.0, "xfp": 93.5, "xfp_diff": -9.3, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 65.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.4, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.44, "rec_adot": 13.05, "rec_air_share": 18.18, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.35, "rec_catch_pct": 54.72, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 1.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 11.5, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 20.0, "receptions": 8.0, "receiving_yards": 75.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 6.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 11.8, "ppg": 2.3, "ypc": null, "ypt": 3.8, "ypr": 9.4, "catch_pct": 40.0, "total_yd": 75.0, "ypg": 15.0, "touches": 8.0, "first_downs": 6.0, "xfp": 30.2, "xfp_diff": -18.7, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 56.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.25, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.28, "rec_adot": 12.79, "rec_air_share": 12.03, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.4, "rec_catch_pct": 40.0, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8180", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:33.045468+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Minnesota used Nailor as a vertical specialist and the splits still show it: 15.3 yards per catch in the 90th percentile, a 13-yard aDOT, and 1.38 yards of YAC over expected per reception, an 89th-percentile mark that says he is genuinely dangerous once the ball arrives. The cost of the profile was a 54.7 percent catch rate near the bottom of the position, and the drop numbers absolve his hands, since a 1.9 percent drop rate was among the lowest of any qualified receiver, which points at low-probability throws rather than poor technique. Consensus projects 104.5 points at WR65, well ahead of his standard and half-PPR price in the WR85 range, though PPR drafters curiously pay WR64 at pick 166 for a player whose game is chunk plays rather than catch volume. The move to Las Vegas puts him second on the Raiders' depth chart, and the offense is the bigger problem, carrying a 19.2-point implied total that ranks 28th. Explosiveness like his tends to surface as a few unownable spike weeks rather than steady production, which is roughly what the projection assumes when it sees a top-65 receiver where the market sees a WR85.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Jalen Nailor (concussion) ruled out Sunday — Nailor will remain sidelined in concussion protocol. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T21:18:00+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-11T09:00:23.208085+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "ruled out sunday; concussion protocol; remain sidelined", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T09:10:55.965599+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 2.5578915197735834, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```