# Malik Willis — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8161 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8161", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:23:36.830815+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8161", "name": "Malik Willis", "team": "MIA", "pos": "QB", "age": 27, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 3.3, "ros_ppg": 14.54, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 14.539000000000001, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 259, "adp": 193.5, "adp_pr": 23, "ly": { "pts": 51.2, "g": 4, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 422.0, "passing_tds": 3.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 22.0, "rushing_yards": 123.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 19.0, "rushing_first_downs": 11.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 12.8, "ypc": 5.6, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 545.0, "ypg": 136.2, "touches": 22.0, "first_downs": 11.0, "xfp": 12.2, "xfp_diff": 12.1, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 42.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 17.8, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 3.5, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 84.6, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 1057.0, "passing_tds": 4.0, "interceptions": 4.0, "carries": 35.0, "rushing_yards": 223.0, "rushing_tds": 3.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 45.0, "rushing_first_downs": 15.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 14.1, "ypc": 6.4, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1280.0, "ypg": 213.3, "touches": 35.0, "first_downs": 15.0, "xfp": 25.0, "xfp_diff": 15.3, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 100.0, "pass_time_to_throw": 3.13, "pass_adot": 9.89, "pass_aggressiveness": 21.19, "pass_cpoe": -2.01, "pass_air_to_sticks": 0.46, "pass_rating": 77.06, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 27.1, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 15.2, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8161", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:23:36.833361+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Miami has Willis atop its depth chart, and the market is drafting the projection rather than his record. The consensus line, 628 rushing yards and four rushing scores holding up a 271-point QB20 season, rests almost entirely on faith, because his 2025 amounted to four appearances in Green Bay, 422 passing yards in total, and a 12.8 point-per-game average that collapses to 6.6 once a 31.5-point Week 17 comes out. Vegas is openly skeptical of the whole operation, ranking Miami 28th in implied team totals. The price splits by format in an odd way, QB19 around pick 140 in single-quarterback rooms, which is roughly the projection, while superflex drafters let him slide to QB27, cheaper than the projection says. High-volume rushing quarterbacks can score in bad offenses, and that is the honest shape of this pick, a rushing-usage bet with close to no passing evidence underneath it.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Malik Willis: Dolphins not considering benching QB — \"We've played five games, and Malik is our quarterback,\" Hafley said. Willis remains a low-end QB2 for fantasy managers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-12T18:58:27+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 0, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "not considering benching; our quarterback; low-end qb2", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T19:09:20.919348+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```