{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8154","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.042284+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"8154","name":"Brian Robinson Jr.","team":"ATL","pos":"RB","age":27,"exp":4,"injury":"Out","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":5.03,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":5.0327232906700115,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":83,"adp":173.0,"adp_pr":56,"ly":{"pts":58.5,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":92.0,"rushing_yards":400.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":12.0,"receptions":8.0,"receiving_yards":25.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":20.0,"receiving_first_downs":1.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":2.2,"ppg":3.44,"ypc":4.3,"ypt":2.1,"ypr":3.1,"catch_pct":66.7,"total_yd":425.0,"ypg":25.0,"touches":100.0,"first_downs":21.0,"xfp":69.7,"xfp_diff":-11.2,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":16.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":29.35,"rush_time_to_los":2.69,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.1,"rush_efficiency":3.77,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.38,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.53,"rush_yac_att":1.73,"rush_broken_tackles":10.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":50.6,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":53.0,"rushing_yards":211.0,"rushing_tds":4.0,"targets":6.0,"receptions":5.0,"receiving_yards":30.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":15.0,"receiving_first_downs":1.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":3.8,"ppg":8.43,"ypc":4.0,"ypt":5.0,"ypr":6.0,"catch_pct":83.3,"total_yd":241.0,"ypg":40.2,"touches":58.0,"first_downs":16.0,"xfp":37.7,"xfp_diff":12.9,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":30.3,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":18.87,"rush_time_to_los":2.7,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.07,"rush_efficiency":4.1,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.43,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":1.58,"rush_yac_att":2.4,"rush_broken_tackles":1.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"8154","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.054809+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Standard-league drafters are paying a seventh-round price for Robinson, RB35 overall at pick 80, and it takes work to find the season that price describes. He played 16.7 percent of San Francisco's offensive snaps in 2025, a 2nd-percentile share, totaled 100 touches, and averaged 3.4 points a game. Atlanta explains the enthusiasm, a new depth chart with him listed second, yet the consensus projection reaches only 89.1 points, RB51, sixteen spots below the standard market. The offense doesn't rescue the math either, 26th by implied team totals at 20.7 a game. When he did carry it he ran fine, 4.3 a carry with a 64th-percentile broken-tackle count, so the doubts concern role rather than talent. Half-PPR drafters are being considerably more sober, taking him around pick 137 as RB46, roughly in line with the projection. Treat the two prices as different players: a mild value in half and PPR formats, and a significant reach in standard, where the market is pricing a workhorse role that neither the projection nor Atlanta's depth chart actually promises.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Brian Robinson Jr. scored three touchdowns in win Monday — Robinson had one of the best games of his careers in Week 4, scoring three touchdowns en route to a blowout win over Atlanta's divisional rivals on Monday night. He was able to tack on 62 yards outside of that, and he should be considered one of the premier handcuff options in fantasy at this point, as he has week-to-week upside even with Bijan Robinson healthy and starting ahead of him for the Falcons.","latest_at":"2026-10-06T04:20:22+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"scored three touchdowns; one of the best games; handcuff options; week-to-week upside; bijan robinson healthy","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-06T19:14:37.259561+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}