{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8150","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:47.855843+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"8150","name":"Kyren Williams","team":"LAR","pos":"RB","age":26,"exp":4,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":96.4,"ros_ppg":17.05,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":17.046555555555553,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":218,"adp":25.2,"adp_pr":13,"ly":{"pts":245.3,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":259.0,"rushing_yards":1252.0,"rushing_tds":10.0,"targets":50.0,"receptions":36.0,"receiving_yards":281.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":76.0,"receiving_first_downs":12.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":8.6,"ppg":14.43,"ypc":4.8,"ypt":5.6,"ypr":7.8,"catch_pct":72.0,"total_yd":1533.0,"ypg":90.2,"touches":295.0,"first_downs":88.0,"xfp":238.5,"xfp_diff":10.8,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":68.3,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":22.78,"rush_time_to_los":2.63,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.55,"rush_efficiency":3.33,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.44,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.78,"rush_yac_att":1.95,"rush_broken_tackles":23.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.0},"ytd":{"pts":121.1,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":96.0,"rushing_yards":492.0,"rushing_tds":5.0,"targets":41.0,"receptions":32.0,"receiving_yards":239.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":30.0,"receiving_first_downs":11.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":15.1,"ppg":17.3,"ypc":5.1,"ypt":5.8,"ypr":7.5,"catch_pct":78.0,"total_yd":731.0,"ypg":104.4,"touches":128.0,"first_downs":41.0,"xfp":114.7,"xfp_diff":10.4,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":67.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":31.25,"rush_time_to_los":2.91,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.68,"rush_efficiency":3.3,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.45,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.9,"rush_yac_att":2.23,"rush_broken_tackles":7.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":7.3}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"8150","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:47.859342+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"unavailable","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Kyren Williams finished ninth among backs in scoring last year and goes off half-PPR boards at 32.7, fifteenth at the position. The season was as honest as they come, 245 points on 239 expected, no efficiency bonus waiting to be given back, built from a 91st-percentile snap share, 259 carries, and a position-third 76 rushing first downs inside an offense whose early implied totals rank third in the league. The advanced numbers sketch a specific kind of back: bottom-decile rush-path efficiency, meaning he gets downhill immediately, one of the fastest times to the line of scrimmage, and middling yards over expected, a system runner who takes exactly what the Rams' designs give him. Two lost fumbles and a 72 percent catch rate near the bottom of qualified backs are the blemishes. The projection trims him to 223 and RB16, mostly touchdown slippage from last year's 13 total, so the third-round price tracks the forecast rather than the finish. Whether he holds the role is the one thing the data can't answer, because his per-touch numbers describe a back who needs the full workload to matter.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Kyren Williams finds the end zone in Week 5 — Williams was mostly bottled up on the ground by the Buffalo defense on Monday night, but he still managed to punch in a one-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The Rams' newfound willingness to use Williams in the passing attack this year has been an added bonus as he already has 27 catches through five games, putting him just nine grabs shy of setting a new career-high. Williams will be a locked-in RB1 in fantasy in Week 6 vs. the Cardinals.","latest_at":"2026-10-13T09:53:53+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"one-yard td run; newfound willingness; locked-in rb1; 27 catches; punch in","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:14:59.714953+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":null}}