# Chris Olave — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8144 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8144", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:21:08.109903+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8144", "name": "Chris Olave", "team": "NO", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 60.7, "ros_ppg": 14.27, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 14.272888888888891, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 216, "adp": 30.8, "adp_pr": 13, "ly": { "pts": 218.0, "g": 16, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": -3.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 156.0, "receptions": 100.0, "receiving_yards": 1163.0, "receiving_tds": 9.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 53.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 29.4, "ppg": 13.62, "ypc": -3.0, "ypt": 7.5, "ypr": 11.6, "catch_pct": 64.1, "total_yd": 1160.0, "ypg": 72.5, "touches": 101.0, "first_downs": 53.0, "xfp": 227.1, "xfp_diff": -7.1, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 84.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.93, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.76, "rec_adot": 11.68, "rec_air_share": 39.32, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.66, "rec_catch_pct": 64.1, "rec_drops": 5.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.2 }, "ytd": { "pts": 100.1, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 71.0, "receptions": 49.0, "receiving_yards": 636.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 36.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 27.0, "ppg": 14.3, "ypc": null, "ypt": 9.0, "ypr": 13.0, "catch_pct": 69.0, "total_yd": 636.0, "ypg": 90.9, "touches": 49.0, "first_downs": 36.0, "xfp": 102.4, "xfp_diff": -2.3, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 80.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.78, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.9, "rec_adot": 11.95, "rec_air_share": 44.41, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.35, "rec_catch_pct": 69.01, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.2 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8144", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:21:08.113670+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Volume has never been Olave's problem, given that he caught 100 balls on 156 targets last season, both fifth-most at the position, with a 27.6 percent target share and a 39.3 percent air-yards share that ranked third among qualifiers, and his 227 expected points from usage were also fifth-best. The gap between that and stardom is what happens after the catch: minus 0.52 yards of YAC over expected, bottom tenth, and just 11.6 yards per reception despite the downfield target mix. Defenses gave him some of the softest cushions in the league (91st percentile) and he still finished eight points under what usage predicted, which implicates the offense at least as much as the receiver. The early Vegas numbers rank New Orleans 23rd by implied totals, so the constraint is not going anywhere. All of that lands him in a strange spot on draft boards, a 31.8 ADP at WR12 with the projection one slot ahead at 210 points. You are buying one of the five best usage profiles in football attached to one of its ten worst offenses, and the resolution of that tension is basically the whole bet. In full-point formats the hundred-catch pace does more of the work, and his PPR ADP of 26.4 reflects that.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Chris Olave (foot) off injury report Sunday — Olave was able to practice on both Thursday and Friday. He will remain a WR1 play for fantasy managers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T18:16:29+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-10T19:00:24.170294+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "off injury report; practice on both; remain a wr1; foot injury", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T09:20:59.685951+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```