# Isaiah Likely — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8131 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8131", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:00.290081+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8131", "name": "Isaiah Likely", "team": "NYG", "pos": "TE", "age": 26, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 37.0, "ros_ppg": 10.77, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 10.769111111111112, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 134, "adp": 109.2, "adp_pr": 12, "ly": { "pts": 48.2, "g": 12, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 36.0, "receptions": 27.0, "receiving_yards": 307.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 12.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 12.4, "ppg": 4.02, "ypc": null, "ypt": 8.5, "ypr": 11.4, "catch_pct": 75.0, "total_yd": 307.0, "ypg": 25.6, "touches": 27.0, "first_downs": 12.0, "xfp": 49.7, "xfp_diff": 0.5, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 55.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.8 }, "ytd": { "pts": 90.0, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 63.0, "receptions": 41.0, "receiving_yards": 395.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 25.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 27.0, "ppg": 12.86, "ypc": null, "ypt": 6.3, "ypr": 9.6, "catch_pct": 65.1, "total_yd": 395.0, "ypg": 56.4, "touches": 41.0, "first_downs": 25.0, "xfp": 81.9, "xfp_diff": 8.1, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 75.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.73, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.14, "rec_adot": 7.93, "rec_air_share": 22.48, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.16, "rec_catch_pct": 65.08, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.8 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8131", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:00.299595+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "A change of scenery is the entire thesis with Likely, who lands with the Giants after a 2025 in Baltimore that gave drafters nothing to price: 36 targets across 12 games, 48.2 points, a 55.9 percent snap share, and 4 points a game. The consensus projection treats the new home as a real role, TE13 and 134 points, while the market moves slower, TE17 at 120.5 in half-PPR and all the way down at TE21 in standard leagues. No advanced profile exists to lean on because the usage never qualified him for one, so the argument rests on his age (26) and a depth chart that finally lists him first. Drafting him is paying a backup's price for a projected starter's stat line, with the honest caveat that the projection is doing all the believing and his box scores haven't started yet.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Isaiah Likely (knee/groin) off injury report Sunday — Likely hauled in seven passes last week. He remains a borderline TE1/TE2 play for fantasy managers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T23:33:08+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-11T09:00:23.208085+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "off injury report; hauled in seven passes; borderline te1/te2; knee/groin", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T09:04:27.847052+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```