{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7670","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:59.395909+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"7670","name":"Joshua Palmer","team":"BUF","pos":"WR","age":27,"exp":5,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":2.42,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":2.4212,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":59,"adp":624.0,"adp_pr":290,"ly":{"pts":41.3,"g":12,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":37.0,"receptions":22.0,"receiving_yards":303.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":14.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":10.8,"ppg":3.44,"ypc":null,"ypt":8.2,"ypr":13.8,"catch_pct":59.5,"total_yd":303.0,"ypg":25.2,"touches":22.0,"first_downs":14.0,"xfp":54.4,"xfp_diff":-13.1,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":48.3,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":25.7,"g":4,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":11.0,"receptions":4.0,"receiving_yards":117.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":9.5,"ppg":6.42,"ypc":null,"ypt":10.6,"ypr":29.2,"catch_pct":36.4,"total_yd":117.0,"ypg":29.2,"touches":4.0,"first_downs":3.0,"xfp":19.3,"xfp_diff":6.4,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":37.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":27.3}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"7670","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:59.409092+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Palmer went twelve games without a touchdown in his first Buffalo season, and the missing scores are also the most fixable thing about him. His 37 targets produced 303 yards, and the 13-point gap between his output and his 54.4 expected points is mostly that absent touchdown or two. Everything else reads quiet: a 7.8 percent target share, under half the snaps, zero drops, a fifth spot on the depth chart. What keeps him on watchlists is the offense, since Buffalo's average implied total ranks fifth on the early 2026 lines, and environments that rich tend to spread scores around eventually. Consensus sees 26 catches and 56 points at WR110, the 343 ADP prices him as WR122, and at this depth of the draft the difference between those two numbers is noise. If an injury opens snaps in a top-five scoring environment he becomes interesting fast, and that possibility, not anything he did in 2025, is what a September watchlist spot is for.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Joshua Palmer (shoulder) ruled out Monday  — Palmer missed practice again on Saturday. His absence should not impact the Bills offense for fantasy managers. ","latest_at":"2026-10-11T01:17:48+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":1.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"ruled out monday; shoulder injury; missed practice; should not impact; bills offense","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-13T09:25:48.377846+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":2.157182798348736,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}