{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7569","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:45.080157+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"7569","name":"Nico Collins","team":"HOU","pos":"WR","age":27,"exp":5,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":61.5,"ros_ppg":14.36,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":14.35677777777778,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":210,"adp":23.2,"adp_pr":9,"ly":{"pts":188.7,"g":15,"through_week":17,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":15.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":120.0,"receptions":71.0,"receiving_yards":1117.0,"receiving_tds":6.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":48.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":24.6,"ppg":12.58,"ypc":7.5,"ypt":9.3,"ypr":15.7,"catch_pct":59.2,"total_yd":1132.0,"ypg":75.5,"touches":73.0,"first_downs":49.0,"xfp":190.3,"xfp_diff":0.4,"xfp_through_week":17,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":77.2,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.26,"rec_avg_cushion":4.87,"rec_adot":12.96,"rec_air_share":34.15,"rec_yac_above_exp":1.75,"rec_catch_pct":59.17,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":4.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.8},"ytd":{"pts":64.1,"g":5,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":12.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":35.0,"receptions":24.0,"receiving_yards":329.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":15.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":22.4,"ppg":12.82,"ypc":6.0,"ypt":9.4,"ypr":13.7,"catch_pct":68.6,"total_yd":341.0,"ypg":68.2,"touches":26.0,"first_downs":16.0,"xfp":56.5,"xfp_diff":7.6,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":70.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":1.99,"rec_avg_cushion":5.33,"rec_adot":13.27,"rec_air_share":20.95,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.39,"rec_catch_pct":68.57,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"7569","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:45.085185+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Defenses played Collins tighter than almost any receiver in football, giving him the second-tightest average cushion among qualifiers, and his 2.31 yards of average separation sat in the bottom sixth. Winning anyway is the skill: 15.7 yards per reception (93rd percentile), 9.3 per target, a 34 percent air-yards share, and 1.69 yards of YAC over expected in the 92nd percentile once the ball arrived. A 59 percent catch rate reads badly until you consider what the targets looked like, contested and downfield, and he dropped exactly one ball all season. What holds him back is plain volume: 120 targets in 15 games, a 21.7 percent share that is strong without being alpha-grade, and a 189-point season that landed within two points of what usage predicted, so there is no hidden debt in either direction. Houston's implied totals sit mid-pack on early lines. His 23.7 ADP makes him the WR8 while the projection ranks him twelfth at 208 points, so the market is paying a premium over the consensus number, essentially a bet that the per-target dominance finally meets a full target load and seventeen games.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Nico Collins (rest) limited in practice Wednesday  — It was a day to begin the week for Collins. He remains a locked and loaded WR1 for fantasy managers. ","latest_at":"2026-10-07T22:02:36+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-08T19:00:31.542595+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.5,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"limited in practice; locked and loaded; wr1","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-08T19:20:17.245593+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-05","source":"curves-v1"}}}