# Ja'Marr Chase — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7564 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7564", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:49.600684+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "7564", "name": "Ja'Marr Chase", "team": "CIN", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 5, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 77.8, "ros_ppg": 15.31, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 15.3118, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 275, "adp": 3.8, "adp_pr": 1, "ly": { "pts": 251.1, "g": 16, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 3.0, "rushing_yards": 14.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 185.0, "receptions": 125.0, "receiving_yards": 1412.0, "receiving_tds": 8.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 73.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 32.2, "ppg": 15.69, "ypc": 4.7, "ypt": 7.6, "ypr": 11.3, "catch_pct": 67.6, "total_yd": 1426.0, "ypg": 89.1, "touches": 128.0, "first_downs": 73.0, "xfp": 247.4, "xfp_diff": 5.7, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 94.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.13, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.74, "rec_adot": 8.42, "rec_air_share": 34.09, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.32, "rec_catch_pct": 67.57, "rec_drops": 4.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 6.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.2 }, "ytd": { "pts": 81.1, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 45.0, "receptions": 32.0, "receiving_yards": 351.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 18.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 21.0, "ppg": 13.52, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.8, "ypr": 11.0, "catch_pct": 71.1, "total_yd": 351.0, "ypg": 58.5, "touches": 32.0, "first_downs": 18.0, "xfp": 67.1, "xfp_diff": 14.0, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 79.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.67, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.67, "rec_adot": 9.74, "rec_air_share": 27.1, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.39, "rec_catch_pct": 71.11, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.2 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "7564", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:49.603050+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Nobody in football saw more targets last season than Chase, whose 185 set the position's pace, and the shape of that volume is what makes his price hold up. He played 94.4 percent of the offensive snaps, the second-highest share among qualified wideouts, and drew a 30.5 percent target share alongside a 34 percent slice of Cincinnati's air yards. The work is shallow, an 8.4-yard aDOT in the bottom fifth of the position, but he turned it into 1,412 yards anyway because he creates after the catch, with 1.31 yards of YAC over expected (87th percentile) and a broken-tackle count in the 94th. What I like most for 2026 is that there is no efficiency debt in the profile: 251 half-PPR points against 247 expected from usage alone, meaning he scored almost exactly what the role was worth. A consensus projection of 275 points asks only that the role persist and the touchdown luck normalize, since eight scores on that volume ran light, and Cincinnati carries a top-five implied team total on early lines. At a 3.7 ADP he costs a top-five pick, and the usage-first case at that price is about as clean as they come.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Ja'Marr Chase remains in concussion protocol — Chase was in uniform during practice on Friday. He will have till Saturday to clear all protocols in time for Sunday. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T17:48:28+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-10T19:00:24.170294+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "remains in concussion protocol; in uniform during practice; clear all protocols; till saturday; in time for sunday", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-10T19:00:27.228108+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-11", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```