# Kyle Pitts Sr. — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7553 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7553", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:18:57.133808+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "7553", "name": "Kyle Pitts Sr.", "team": "ATL", "pos": "TE", "age": 26, "exp": 5, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 6.57, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 6.571222222222223, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 149, "adp": 70.2, "adp_pr": 7, "ly": { "pts": 166.8, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 118.0, "receptions": 88.0, "receiving_yards": 928.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 51.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 22.7, "ppg": 9.81, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.9, "ypr": 10.5, "catch_pct": 74.6, "total_yd": 928.0, "ypg": 54.6, "touches": 88.0, "first_downs": 51.0, "xfp": 152.7, "xfp_diff": 14.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 88.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.51, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.37, "rec_adot": 7.19, "rec_air_share": 20.68, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.84, "rec_catch_pct": 74.58, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 1.7 }, "ytd": { "pts": 53.1, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 27.0, "receptions": 20.0, "receiving_yards": 191.0, "receiving_tds": 4.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 10.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 14.1, "ppg": 7.59, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.1, "ypr": 9.6, "catch_pct": 74.1, "total_yd": 191.0, "ypg": 27.3, "touches": 20.0, "first_downs": 10.0, "xfp": 39.2, "xfp_diff": 13.9, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 58.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.96, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.99, "rec_adot": 5.26, "rec_air_share": 11.06, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.44, "rec_catch_pct": 74.07, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "7553", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:18:57.138235+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Year five finally produced the season Atlanta drafted Pitts for: 118 targets, 88 catches, 928 yards, each second among tight ends, on a 22.8 percent target share. The shape of that production was strange, though, because his 20.7 percent air-yards share sat in the 97th percentile while his YAC over expected finished dead last among qualified tight ends at minus 0.88 per catch, so all of his value arrived through the air with nothing added on the ground after it. A 1.7 percent drop rate at least confirms the hands held up. Atlanta responded with a three-year, 54 million dollar extension, and the reporting around it slots him as the clear second target behind Drake London in a Stefanski system with a long habit of feeding tight ends. Vegas is cooler on the whole operation, 26th by implied team total. At 76 overall in half-PPR the market calls him TE7 while the projection says TE5 and 156 points, a modest discount on a player whose volume now looks contractually and schematically secure, and the after-catch numbers are the piece to keep watching.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Kyle Pitts Sr. racks up 47 yards Monday — Pitts has had a very rough start to the season from a fantasy perspective, and it didn't get much better on Monday. He was able to rack up 47 yards at least, but he only caught three passes and failed to get into the end zone at all. He shouldn't be trusted as a starter for the foreseeable future.", "latest_at": "2026-10-06T12:01:00+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "rough start; only caught three passes; no end zone; shouldn't be trusted as starter; 47 yards", "llm_role_change": -1, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T19:14:15.618756+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```