{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7525","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:29.863507+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"7525","name":"DeVonta Smith","team":"PHI","pos":"WR","age":27,"exp":5,"injury":"Out","rookie":false,"value":26.2,"ros_ppg":10.44,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":10.443358077876072,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":193,"adp":33.5,"adp_pr":14,"ly":{"pts":163.3,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":113.0,"receptions":77.0,"receiving_yards":1008.0,"receiving_tds":4.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":44.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":24.4,"ppg":9.61,"ypc":null,"ypt":8.9,"ypr":13.1,"catch_pct":68.1,"total_yd":1008.0,"ypg":59.3,"touches":77.0,"first_downs":44.0,"xfp":160.1,"xfp_diff":3.2,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":84.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.83,"rec_avg_cushion":6.44,"rec_adot":12.02,"rec_air_share":32.33,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.08,"rec_catch_pct":68.14,"rec_drops":4.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.5},"ytd":{"pts":56.0,"g":4,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":41.0,"receptions":26.0,"receiving_yards":310.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":13.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":32.8,"ppg":14.0,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.6,"ypr":11.9,"catch_pct":63.4,"total_yd":310.0,"ypg":77.5,"touches":26.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":60.0,"xfp_diff":-4.0,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":87.2,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.35,"rec_avg_cushion":6.08,"rec_adot":12.47,"rec_air_share":30.47,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.06,"rec_catch_pct":63.41,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"7525","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:28:29.867755+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"current","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Underneath Smith's quiet 9.6 points per game sits a target profile that never stopped being good. He drew a 24.4 percent target share (91st percentile) and a 32.4 percent air-yards share, caught 68 percent of his targets at a twelve-yard aDOT, and finished within about three points of what his usage predicted across 17 games. The season looks thin because the volume itself was thin at 6.6 targets per game, and because he scored four touchdowns on more than a thousand yards. A 41.4 ADP prices him at WR18, three slots below his 193-point projection, and the gap widens in standard scoring, where the market slots him WR23 against a WR15 projection. The discount buys a fixed share of a functional passing game and a touchdown count with obvious room to drift back toward the yardage. The limitation is after-catch creation, where his minus 0.12 yards of YAC over expected ranked in the bottom quarter, keeping the weekly ceiling tethered to targets and red-zone luck.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"DeVonta Smith (hamstring) ruled out Sunday  — Smith will miss another game for the Eagles alongside Dontayvion Wicks. They both remain week-to-week. ","latest_at":"2026-10-30T20:47:48+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":2.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"hamstring; ruled out sunday; miss another game; week-to-week","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-31T23:07:19.376716+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}