{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7021","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:23:10.278308+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"7021","name":"Rico Dowdle","team":"PIT","pos":"RB","age":28,"exp":6,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":10.5,"ros_ppg":7.49,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":7.4928888888888885,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":165,"adp":83.7,"adp_pr":32,"ly":{"pts":196.8,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":236.0,"rushing_yards":1076.0,"rushing_tds":6.0,"targets":50.0,"receptions":39.0,"receiving_yards":297.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":52.0,"receiving_first_downs":14.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":10.4,"ppg":11.58,"ypc":4.6,"ypt":5.9,"ypr":7.6,"catch_pct":78.0,"total_yd":1373.0,"ypg":80.8,"touches":275.0,"first_downs":66.0,"xfp":199.8,"xfp_diff":-1.0,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":56.1,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":21.19,"rush_time_to_los":2.72,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.63,"rush_efficiency":3.29,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.44,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.49,"rush_yac_att":2.01,"rush_broken_tackles":14.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.0},"ytd":{"pts":26.5,"g":4,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":31.0,"rushing_yards":118.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":17.0,"receptions":13.0,"receiving_yards":82.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":6.0,"receiving_first_downs":5.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":11.6,"ppg":6.62,"ypc":3.8,"ypt":4.8,"ypr":6.3,"catch_pct":76.5,"total_yd":200.0,"ypg":50.0,"touches":44.0,"first_downs":11.0,"xfp":34.4,"xfp_diff":-7.9,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":38.8,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":5.9}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"7021","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:23:10.281587+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"unavailable","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Carolina gave Dowdle a genuine workhorse season and he held up under it: 236 carries, 1,076 rushing yards, and a 10.4 percent target share that ranked 10th among backs, with his 196.8 points landing within three points of what his usage alone predicted. Nothing there was luck-driven, which matters more than the raw total. The charting adds one wrinkle, a rush-path efficiency of 3.27 that sat in the 6th percentile, and that is a style note rather than a flaw. He runs about as north-south as anyone at the position, and it worked, with rush yards over expected at plus 0.63 per carry. Now he's in Pittsburgh at 28, listed second on the depth chart, in an offense Vegas ranks 19th by implied totals. The consensus projection still hands him 208 carries and RB29 points, while the market takes him around pick 83 as RB33 (half-PPR). Paying a small discount to projection for a back who just proved he can carry 275 touches makes him one of the calmer picks in this range, and the main thing that could break it is a Steelers committee rather than his own play.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Rico Dowdle (toe) on track to return in Week 6 — Dowdle will return from a multi-week absence. Steelers coach Mike McCarthy has clarified that Jaylen Warren will remain the feature back in the Steelers backfield. ","latest_at":"2026-10-12T20:42:45+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00","llm_sentiment":null,"llm_injury_trajectory":null,"llm_severity":null,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":null,"llm_key_phrases":null,"llm_role_change":null,"llm_usage_outlook":null,"llm_team_context":null,"llm_relevance":null,"llm_inferred_at":null,"llm_model":null,"inference_status":"unavailable"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":2.9285267700496256,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}