{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6826","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:35.804374+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"6826","name":"Cole Kmet","team":"CHI","pos":"TE","age":27,"exp":6,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":4.04,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":4.038593499276202,"source":"fallback","captured_at":null,"covered_weeks":[],"missing_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":9},"proj":54,"adp":683.3,"adp_pr":225,"ly":{"pts":61.7,"g":16,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":48.0,"receptions":30.0,"receiving_yards":347.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":17.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":9.7,"ppg":3.86,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.2,"ypr":11.6,"catch_pct":62.5,"total_yd":347.0,"ypg":21.7,"touches":30.0,"first_downs":17.0,"xfp":66.1,"xfp_diff":-4.4,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":71.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.68,"rec_avg_cushion":5.83,"rec_adot":8.63,"rec_air_share":9.23,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.2,"rec_catch_pct":62.5,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.2},"ytd":{"pts":19.7,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":14.0,"receptions":10.0,"receiving_yards":87.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":5.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":6.2,"ppg":2.81,"ypc":null,"ypt":6.2,"ypr":8.7,"catch_pct":71.4,"total_yd":87.0,"ypg":12.4,"touches":10.0,"first_downs":5.0,"xfp":17.5,"xfp_diff":2.2,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":61.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":14.3}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"6826","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:28:35.807382+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Cole Kmet's 2025 reads like a role change hiding inside a down year. His aDOT jumped to 8.7, roughly 90th percentile among qualified tight ends, with 11.6 yards per reception, while his catch rate sank to 62.5 percent, near the bottom of the position. Deeper routes and fewer completions is a coherent trade, and it came on shrunken volume: three targets a game, a 9 percent target share, despite 71 percent of the snaps and all 16 games played. He finished with 62 points against 66 expected. Now listed second on Chicago's depth chart, he's projected for about 53 points at TE40, and a half-PPR ADP of 340 says the market has closed the book. The Bears' 25.0 implied total ranks eighth, which is the one live thread here, because if the downfield usage persists and the target count recovers at all, the profile has more in it than a price this deep implies. His 2025 volume trend gives no assurance of that.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Cole Kmet finds end zone in Week 1 win — Kmet capitalized on modest involvement in the Chicago passing attack, taking in one of quarterback Caleb Williams' two touchdown passes in the win. The veteran tight end remains behind Colston Loveland in the Chicago tight end room as part of an explosive Chicago offense for head coach Ben Johnson, with a Week 2 contest against the Minnesota Vikings up next.","latest_at":"2026-09-14T14:04:38+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-15T10:00:03.130918+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"finds end zone; modest involvement; remains behind; explosive chicago offense","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-15T10:20:19.100295+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.4987386934308384,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.4987386934308384,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}