{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6819","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:34.685798+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"6819","name":"Michael Pittman Jr.","team":"PIT","pos":"WR","age":29,"exp":6,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":5.01,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":5.01464228633594,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":150,"adp":104.9,"adp_pr":44,"ly":{"pts":160.4,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":111.0,"receptions":80.0,"receiving_yards":784.0,"receiving_tds":7.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":47.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":20.9,"ppg":9.44,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.1,"ypr":9.8,"catch_pct":72.1,"total_yd":784.0,"ypg":46.1,"touches":80.0,"first_downs":47.0,"xfp":153.2,"xfp_diff":7.2,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":85.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.03,"rec_avg_cushion":6.66,"rec_adot":7.97,"rec_air_share":20.6,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.4,"rec_catch_pct":72.07,"rec_drops":6.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":5.4},"ytd":{"pts":12.4,"g":3,"through_week":4,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":12.0,"receptions":7.0,"receiving_yards":89.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":11.2,"ppg":4.13,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.4,"ypr":12.7,"catch_pct":58.3,"total_yd":89.0,"ypg":29.7,"touches":7.0,"first_downs":3.0,"xfp":14.8,"xfp_diff":-2.4,"xfp_through_week":4,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":77.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"6819","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:28:34.693158+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Volume receivers rarely come as clearly labeled as Michael Pittman. Last year in Indianapolis he caught 80 of 111 targets, a 72 percent catch rate in the 87th percentile, on an 8.0-yard aDOT near the bottom of the position, with defenses conceding an 89th-percentile cushion and inviting the underneath work all season. He took the invitation for 784 yards at 9.8 per catch, an 8th-percentile figure that tells you exactly what kind of yards these are, and seven touchdowns pushed him a modest seven points past his usage-based expectation. The change of scenery matters less than usual because the skill set travels, 68th-percentile separation and reliable hands play anywhere, and the consensus projection follows him to Pittsburgh at 80 catches and WR35. Drafters haven't followed, letting him slip to pick 98 and WR43 in half-PPR, an eight-spot gap on position rank for one of the safer catch totals on the board. His ceiling stays capped unless the touchdown rate repeats, and yards per catch this low means the value concentrates in reception scoring, where 80 receptions do the heavy lifting regardless of how short each one is.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) placed on IR — Pittman will miss at least the next four weeks. Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard should both step into bigger roles in the Steelers wide receiver room. ","latest_at":"2026-10-11T01:20:11+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-11T09:00:23.208085+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":4.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"placed on ir; miss at least; four weeks; bigger roles","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-11T09:08:59.087472+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}