# Tee Higgins — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6801 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6801", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:48.758320+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "6801", "name": "Tee Higgins", "team": "CIN", "pos": "WR", "age": 27, "exp": 6, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 49.9, "ros_ppg": 12.51, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 12.5148, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 186, "adp": 39.2, "adp_pr": 17, "ly": { "pts": 180.1, "g": 15, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 98.0, "receptions": 59.0, "receiving_yards": 846.0, "receiving_tds": 11.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 41.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 18.6, "ppg": 12.01, "ypc": null, "ypt": 8.6, "ypr": 14.3, "catch_pct": 60.2, "total_yd": 846.0, "ypg": 56.4, "touches": 59.0, "first_downs": 41.0, "xfp": 157.0, "xfp_diff": 23.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 80.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 1.85, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.24, "rec_adot": 13.54, "rec_air_share": 29.04, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.37, "rec_catch_pct": 60.2, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 5.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 85.6, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 50.0, "receptions": 33.0, "receiving_yards": 571.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 27.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 23.4, "ppg": 14.27, "ypc": null, "ypt": 11.4, "ypr": 17.3, "catch_pct": 66.0, "total_yd": 571.0, "ypg": 95.2, "touches": 33.0, "first_downs": 27.0, "xfp": 70.0, "xfp_diff": 15.6, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 78.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.43, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.54, "rec_adot": 14.18, "rec_air_share": 43.84, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.32, "rec_catch_pct": 66.0, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "6801", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:48.760907+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Higgins scored eleven touchdowns on only 98 targets last season, third-most at the position, and that ratio does most of the work in both his 2025 line and his 2026 price. The spike pushed him 23 points past what his usage was worth, a 91st-percentile overshoot, on a modest 16.1 percent target share. The charting underneath is genuinely rough: 1.83 yards of average separation, last among the 79 qualifiers, with corners pressing him (bottom tenth in cushion) on a deep 13.5-yard aDOT, and a 60.2 percent catch rate to match. The market pays WR15 at a 37.8 ADP for that package while the consensus projection drops him to 186 points and WR20, so the premium over projection is purely a bet on touchdown persistence from the least-separation receiver in the sample. In his favor, Cincinnati's early implied totals rank fifth, the red-zone role produced double-digit scores, and 14.3 yards per reception says the deep wins are real when they come. Eleven scores on 59 catches is still a rate no projection carries forward, and the consensus number already reflects that discount.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Tee Higgins (groin/neck) listed questionable Sunday — Higgins was able to get in some work during practice on Friday. His status will have to be monitored closer to kickoff on Sunday. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T17:49:29+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-10T19:00:24.170294+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "groin neck; listed questionable; some work practice; status will be monitored; questionable sunday", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-10T19:21:49.187637+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-11", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```