# Justin Jefferson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6794 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6794", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:01.410528+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "6794", "name": "Justin Jefferson", "team": "MIN", "pos": "WR", "age": 27, "exp": 6, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 68.6, "ros_ppg": 14.39, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 14.39, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 223, "adp": 12.9, "adp_pr": 6, "ly": { "pts": 159.5, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 7.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 141.0, "receptions": 84.0, "receiving_yards": 1048.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 47.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 30.1, "ppg": 9.38, "ypc": 3.5, "ypt": 7.4, "ypr": 12.5, "catch_pct": 59.6, "total_yd": 1055.0, "ypg": 62.1, "touches": 86.0, "first_downs": 47.0, "xfp": 210.7, "xfp_diff": -51.2, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 94.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.23, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.79, "rec_adot": 10.36, "rec_air_share": 38.39, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.81, "rec_catch_pct": 59.57, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 5.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.1 }, "ytd": { "pts": 58.6, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": -11.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 31.0, "receptions": 23.0, "receiving_yards": 302.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 14.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 25.8, "ppg": 11.72, "ypc": -11.0, "ypt": 9.7, "ypr": 13.1, "catch_pct": 74.2, "total_yd": 291.0, "ypg": 58.2, "touches": 24.0, "first_downs": 14.0, "xfp": 44.6, "xfp_diff": 14.0, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 77.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.81, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.57, "rec_adot": 11.49, "rec_air_share": 31.18, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.07, "rec_catch_pct": 74.19, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 9.7 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "6794", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:01.413510+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Almost nothing about Jefferson's 2025 usage explains his 9.4 points per game. He played 94 percent of the snaps (98th percentile), drew a 30.3 percent target share and a 38.4 percent air-yards share, and the usage model valued all of it at 211 expected points. He scored 159, a minus-51 gap that was second-worst among the 98 receivers with enough volume to grade, dragged down by two touchdowns and a 59.6 percent catch rate on routes where he was demonstrably open, with 3.23 yards of average separation in the 79th percentile. That combination points at ball quality rather than route running. The rebound case writes itself if you trust the role, and the role looks untouched. What keeps me from calling the 12.4 ADP a bargain is the environment, since Vegas has Minnesota 19th by implied totals on early lines and a 220-point projection at WR8 already assumes a large efficiency recovery without a big offense behind it. Buying Jefferson at a low-end WR1 price is a bet that elite usage plus ordinary luck beats a mediocre offense, usually a good bet with a player of this pedigree, just not the free money the name suggests.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Justin Jefferson (ankle) plans to play Sunday, to see how he feels Saturday — We should know by the end of Saturday if Jefferson will be good to go on Sunday. He will be a WR1 play if he is good to go. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-10T05:08:44+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-11T09:00:23.208085+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "ankle injury; plans to play sunday; good to go; wr1 play; day to day", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T09:08:15.781383+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 3.697937500856865, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```