# CeeDee Lamb — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6786 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6786", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:48.569173+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "6786", "name": "CeeDee Lamb", "team": "DAL", "pos": "WR", "age": 27, "exp": 6, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 78.9, "ros_ppg": 16.29, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 16.289444444444445, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 224, "adp": 11.7, "adp_pr": 5, "ly": { "pts": 163.4, "g": 13, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 2.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 117.0, "receptions": 75.0, "receiving_yards": 1077.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 43.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 25.3, "ppg": 12.57, "ypc": 2.0, "ypt": 9.2, "ypr": 14.4, "catch_pct": 64.1, "total_yd": 1079.0, "ypg": 83.0, "touches": 76.0, "first_downs": 43.0, "xfp": 176.1, "xfp_diff": -12.7, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 72.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.77, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.22, "rec_adot": 12.31, "rec_air_share": 28.24, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.42, "rec_catch_pct": 64.1, "rec_drops": 8.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 6.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 6.8 }, "ytd": { "pts": 127.0, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": -6.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 81.0, "receptions": 53.0, "receiving_yards": 651.0, "receiving_tds": 6.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 37.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 30.5, "ppg": 18.14, "ypc": -3.0, "ypt": 8.0, "ypr": 12.3, "catch_pct": 65.4, "total_yd": 645.0, "ypg": 92.1, "touches": 55.0, "first_downs": 37.0, "xfp": 125.3, "xfp_diff": 1.7, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 78.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.86, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.49, "rec_adot": 11.02, "rec_air_share": 40.77, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.19, "rec_catch_pct": 65.43, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.7 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "6786", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:48.573293+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Three touchdowns on 117 targets is the number that wrecked Lamb's season, and it is also the number most likely to bounce. He missed four games, yet the yardage never left: 83 receiving yards per game, fifth-best among qualified receivers, on nine targets a week. The efficiency ledger shows 163 actual points against 176 expected, and receivers who post 1,077 yards rarely stay stuck on three scores. Uglier details exist, chiefly eight drops at a 6.8 percent drop rate in the worst fifth of the position and a snap share of 73 percent that ranked mid-pack. His separation, catch rate and after-catch numbers all landed near the middle, so 2025 reads as a competent season with catastrophic touchdown luck rather than a decline in the underlying receiver. The market treats it that way, holding him at WR5 with a 10.3 ADP while the projection sits sixth at 224 points, and Dallas opens the year with top-five implied totals. If the drops were noise and the touchdowns regress upward, the second-round price is honest, and the yards-per-game floor limits how wrong you can be.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "CeeDee Lamb (thigh) practices in full Tuesday — Lamb remains a locked and loaded WR1 for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-06T20:29:55+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-07T09:00:30.592550+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "practices in full; locked and loaded; remains wr1; buccaneers game", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-07T09:14:29.606718+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```