# Justice Hill — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5995 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5995", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.723318+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5995", "name": "Justice Hill", "team": "BAL", "pos": "RB", "age": 28, "exp": 7, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 5.27, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 5.272333333333332, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 98, "adp": 222.1, "adp_pr": 62, "ly": { "pts": 54.7, "g": 10, "through_week": 12, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 18.0, "rushing_yards": 93.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 27.0, "receptions": 21.0, "receiving_yards": 169.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 4.0, "receiving_first_downs": 6.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 10.8, "ppg": 5.47, "ypc": 5.2, "ypt": 6.3, "ypr": 8.0, "catch_pct": 77.8, "total_yd": 262.0, "ypg": 26.2, "touches": 39.0, "first_downs": 10.0, "xfp": 39.5, "xfp_diff": 15.2, "xfp_through_week": 10, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 37.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 5.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 28.9, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 21.0, "rushing_yards": 140.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 17.0, "receptions": 13.0, "receiving_yards": 84.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 6.0, "receiving_first_downs": 2.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 8.6, "ppg": 4.13, "ypc": 6.7, "ypt": 4.9, "ypr": 6.5, "catch_pct": 76.5, "total_yd": 224.0, "ypg": 32.0, "touches": 34.0, "first_downs": 8.0, "xfp": 28.0, "xfp_diff": 0.9, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 42.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.9 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5995", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.782698+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "unavailable", "news_inference": "unavailable", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Baltimore leads the league in implied team total on the early 2026 lines at 27 points a game, and Justice Hill is the cheapest exposure to that offense in any draft. The consensus projects him RB48 with 98.6 half-PPR points, driven almost entirely through the air, 35 catches for 303 yards and a couple of scores, while drafts let him go around pick 237 as the RB68. His 2025 sample backs the shape of that projection. Across ten games he beat his expected points by 39 percent, broke five tackles on only 21 receptions, 84th percentile at the position, and didn't drop a single target, all while carrying the ball just 18 times. He's a pass-catching specialist in the league's best scoring environment, and the market prices him like an ordinary handcuff. Overperformance that large usually regresses, and 28-year-old satellite backs rarely see their roles expand, so the projection deserves a haircut. Even after one, a 20-spot gap between projected finish and price on a player tied to the top implied totals in football is the kind of free value the last round exists for.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": null, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```