# Tony Pollard — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5967 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5967", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:24.727828+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5967", "name": "Tony Pollard", "team": "TEN", "pos": "RB", "age": 29, "exp": 7, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 29.2, "ros_ppg": 9.57, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 9.572333333333335, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 172, "adp": 78.0, "adp_pr": 29, "ly": { "pts": 169.3, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 242.0, "rushing_yards": 1082.0, "rushing_tds": 5.0, "targets": 41.0, "receptions": 33.0, "receiving_yards": 206.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 49.0, "receiving_first_downs": 11.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 7.7, "ppg": 9.96, "ypc": 4.5, "ypt": 5.0, "ypr": 6.2, "catch_pct": 80.5, "total_yd": 1288.0, "ypg": 75.8, "touches": 275.0, "first_downs": 60.0, "xfp": 181.3, "xfp_diff": -6.0, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 62.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 23.14, "rush_time_to_los": 2.89, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.49, "rush_efficiency": 3.74, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.41, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.64, "rush_yac_att": 1.83, "rush_broken_tackles": 16.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 82.3, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 112.0, "rushing_yards": 478.0, "rushing_tds": 4.0, "targets": 16.0, "receptions": 11.0, "receiving_yards": 50.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 23.0, "receiving_first_downs": 2.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 8.2, "ppg": 11.76, "ypc": 4.3, "ypt": 3.1, "ypr": 4.5, "catch_pct": 68.8, "total_yd": 528.0, "ypg": 75.4, "touches": 123.0, "first_downs": 25.0, "xfp": 97.9, "xfp_diff": -15.6, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 58.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 17.86, "rush_time_to_los": 2.73, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.41, "rush_efficiency": 3.5, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.47, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.65, "rush_yac_att": 1.62, "rush_broken_tackles": 6.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 6.2 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5967", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:24.739074+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "current", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Tennessee's grim scoring environment does most of the damage to Pollard's price, and the usage numbers explain why the projection refuses to give up on him. He carried 242 times last season, 13th most at the position, on an 83rd-percentile snap share, and the consensus projects 239 carries again, good for RB26 and 176 points. Half-PPR drafters still let him fall to pick 82, RB32, six spots below that projection. The discount has understandable roots: a 20.2 average implied team total that ranks 27th, receiving work as shallow as it gets at 6.2 yards per reception, three lost fumbles, and a season that finished 12 points under its expected total. At 29 there is no upside narrative left to sell. What remains is a floor argument, a locked-in workload and seventeen games played, which is more than most names in this range can claim, and the market is charging less than the boring version is worth.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Tony Pollard off injury report Sunday — Pollard got a rest day from practice on Thursday. He will remain an RB2 play for fantasy managers. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-30T20:50:08+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "off injury report; rest day; rb2 play", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-31T23:06:48.525275+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```