{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5892","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:15.974496+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"5892","name":"David Montgomery","team":"HOU","pos":"RB","age":29,"exp":7,"injury":"Out","rookie":false,"value":31.8,"ros_ppg":9.86,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":9.86111111111111,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":183,"adp":44.1,"adp_pr":20,"ly":{"pts":152.9,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":3.0,"passing_tds":1.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":158.0,"rushing_yards":716.0,"rushing_tds":8.0,"targets":29.0,"receptions":24.0,"receiving_yards":192.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":1.0,"rushing_first_downs":42.0,"receiving_first_downs":11.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":5.3,"ppg":8.99,"ypc":4.5,"ypt":6.6,"ypr":8.0,"catch_pct":82.8,"total_yd":911.0,"ypg":53.6,"touches":182.0,"first_downs":53.0,"xfp":150.8,"xfp_diff":-0.0,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":37.1,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":34.18,"rush_time_to_los":2.67,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.79,"rush_efficiency":3.54,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.38,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.42,"rush_yac_att":2.11,"rush_broken_tackles":3.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":42.0,"g":5,"through_week":5,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":52.0,"rushing_yards":138.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":7.0,"receptions":7.0,"receiving_yards":67.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":5.0,"receiving_first_downs":2.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":4.1,"ppg":8.4,"ypc":2.7,"ypt":9.6,"ypr":9.6,"catch_pct":100.0,"total_yd":205.0,"ypg":41.0,"touches":59.0,"first_downs":7.0,"xfp":44.6,"xfp_diff":-2.6,"xfp_through_week":5,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":46.8,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":30.77,"rush_time_to_los":2.86,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.43,"rush_efficiency":5.24,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.35,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":1.56,"rush_yac_att":1.1,"rush_broken_tackles":3.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"5892","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:15.978017+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Houston gives Montgomery a fresh start, and the fifth-round market, ADP 53.5 in half-PPR for RB23, is pricing the new home more than the old usage. Detroit cut him to a 37 percent snap share last season, 16th percentile, yet he still scored eight rushing touchdowns and posted 0.8 rush yards over expected per attempt while seeing stacked boxes at a 92nd-percentile rate. Efficiency against loaded fronts at age 29 is a rare line item, though three broken tackles across the whole season suggest the yards now come more from patience and angles than from power. His projection lands at RB25 with 176 points, slightly under the market cost, so drafters are paying a small premium for the possibility that Houston hands him a fuller role than Detroit ever did. The 2025 numbers leave that possibility open without promising the volume, which makes this a deployment bet more than a talent question.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"David Montgomery (groin) 'week-to-week' with groin injury — Montgomery will likely miss some time with the injury, giving Woody Marks a chance to step up once again as the leader of the Houston backfield. When Monty returns, his value will be iffy, as he wasn't performing all too well even when healthy aside from his Week 1 burst when he had three touchdowns.","latest_at":"2026-10-12T16:31:10+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":2.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"week-to-week; miss some time; woody marks; value will be iffy; groin injury","llm_role_change":-1,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":-1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-31T23:24:47.566044+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.500889051272683,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.500889051272683,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}