# Daniel Jones — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5870 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5870", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:16.578634+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5870", "name": "Daniel Jones", "team": "IND", "pos": "QB", "age": 29, "exp": 7, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 12.67, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 12.668088888888889, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 261, "adp": 211.5, "adp_pr": 25, "ly": { "pts": 224.4, "g": 13, "through_week": 14, "passing_yards": 3101.0, "passing_tds": 19.0, "interceptions": 8.0, "carries": 45.0, "rushing_yards": 164.0, "rushing_tds": 5.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 150.0, "rushing_first_downs": 21.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 17.26, "ypc": 3.6, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 3265.0, "ypg": 251.2, "touches": 45.0, "first_downs": 21.0, "xfp": 36.9, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 14, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 91.5, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.7, "pass_adot": 8.22, "pass_aggressiveness": 17.71, "pass_cpoe": 3.62, "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.58, "pass_rating": 100.18, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 19.9, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 12.0, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 64.7, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 1398.0, "passing_tds": 4.0, "interceptions": 7.0, "carries": 21.0, "rushing_yards": 68.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 70.0, "rushing_first_downs": 12.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 9.24, "ypc": 3.2, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1466.0, "ypg": 209.4, "touches": 21.0, "first_downs": 12.0, "xfp": 14.7, "xfp_diff": -1.9, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 100.0, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.82, "pass_adot": 7.75, "pass_aggressiveness": 14.17, "pass_cpoe": -2.15, "pass_air_to_sticks": -1.23, "pass_rating": 69.41, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 22.7, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 15.9, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5870", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:16.581649+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Indianapolis got a 17.9 point-per-game season from Jones across 13 starts, and the quality metrics say it was earned, an 88th-percentile 3.38 CPOE, an 86th-percentile aggressiveness rate, a 100.2 passer rating, and five rushing touchdowns supplying the fantasy finish. Accurate and aggressive at the same time is the combination that separates a real revival from a caretaker season riding checkdowns, and he showed both. The market has priced in almost none of it, letting him go QB25 near pick 170 against a QB24 consensus projection, two or three rounds after quarterbacks he outscored per game last year. The discount rests on legitimate concerns: he carries a Questionable tag into camp, he made 13 starts rather than 17, and the projection itself hedges to 251 points on the assumption the efficiency will not fully repeat. The per-game record says the upside is top-12 when he plays, and availability is the entire question you are being paid to accept.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Daniel Jones solid in overtime loss Sunday — Jones didn't have a spectacular showing on Sunday night, but he was pretty solid and limited mistakes for Indianapolis' offense. That was almost enough for them to pick up a road win over Kansas City, but they ended up narrowly losing in overtime. The veteran quarterback shouldn't be rostered in most league formats at this point.", "latest_at": "2026-09-21T16:13:10+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "solid in overtime loss; limited mistakes; shouldn't be rostered; veteran quarterback; pretty solid", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.8, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:20:35.805972+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-07-18", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```