{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5859","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:34.685186+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"5859","name":"A.J. 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News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"New England is the variable that makes Brown the hardest player in this range to price. His final Philadelphia season was quietly vintage: a 26.1 percent target share, a 90.7 percent snap share in the 95th percentile, seven broken tackles after the catch (96th percentile), and a finish eight points above his expected total, all despite 2.24 yards of average separation in the bottom tenth of the position. At 29, the contested-catch and after-catch traits that define him had not slipped in the charting. The trade resets everything around those traits, with a new quarterback, unfamiliar target competition, and a Patriots offense whose early implied totals rank 15th, unproven either way. His 24.4 ADP makes him the WR9, and the projection lands in the same place, 213 points and ninth at the position, so the market and the consensus have converged on the same compromise, paying for the player while discounting the mystery. The 2025 file says he was still a target-share monster when the situation was stable, and whether New England provides that stability is what a third-round pick here is really buying.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"A.J. Brown (knee/ankle) ruled out for Week 8 — Brown will sit out after being unable to practice throughout the week, leaving the New England passing attack without its primary weapon. Demario Douglas should see even more targets for head coach Mike Vrabel against the Dolphins Sunday.","latest_at":"2026-10-31T17:07:11+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00","llm_sentiment":null,"llm_injury_trajectory":null,"llm_severity":null,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":null,"llm_key_phrases":null,"llm_role_change":null,"llm_usage_outlook":null,"llm_team_context":null,"llm_relevance":null,"llm_inferred_at":null,"llm_model":null,"inference_status":"unavailable"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.4987386934308384,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.4987386934308384,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}