{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5846","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.592359+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"5846","name":"DK Metcalf","team":"PIT","pos":"WR","age":28,"exp":7,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":9.9,"ros_ppg":8.63,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":8.628111111111114,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":163,"adp":77.7,"adp_pr":34,"ly":{"pts":157.7,"g":15,"through_week":16,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":12.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":99.0,"receptions":59.0,"receiving_yards":850.0,"receiving_tds":6.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":37.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":22.4,"ppg":10.51,"ypc":6.0,"ypt":8.6,"ypr":14.4,"catch_pct":59.6,"total_yd":862.0,"ypg":57.5,"touches":61.0,"first_downs":38.0,"xfp":147.5,"xfp_diff":10.2,"xfp_through_week":16,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":87.3,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.63,"rec_avg_cushion":4.49,"rec_adot":9.9,"rec_air_share":31.61,"rec_yac_above_exp":2.77,"rec_catch_pct":59.6,"rec_drops":6.0,"rec_broken_tackles":8.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.1},"ytd":{"pts":60.5,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":11.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":58.0,"receptions":32.0,"receiving_yards":374.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":18.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":23.6,"ppg":8.64,"ypc":11.0,"ypt":6.4,"ypr":11.7,"catch_pct":55.2,"total_yd":385.0,"ypg":55.0,"touches":33.0,"first_downs":19.0,"xfp":85.3,"xfp_diff":-24.8,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":94.9,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.48,"rec_avg_cushion":4.41,"rec_adot":11.82,"rec_air_share":39.76,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.31,"rec_catch_pct":55.17,"rec_drops":4.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":1.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.9}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"5846","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.598749+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Metcalf created more after the catch than any receiver in 2025, ranking first of 79 qualifiers with 2.81 yards of YAC over expected per reception, and he broke eight tackles on receptions, a 97th-percentile count, and he did it while defenses pressed him harder than anyone, a 4.5-yard average cushion that was dead last at the position. Pittsburgh's usage has gone shallow, a 9.8-yard aDOT down in the 34th percentile, and the after-catch ability is what kept the line respectable anyway, 850 yards and six scores on 99 targets while beating his expected points from usage by ten. A 91st-percentile snap share and 19 percent target share say the role is secure. At pick 78 and WR35 in half-PPR against a WR33 projection, there's no arbitrage in either direction, just a stable starter whose 10.3-point median nearly matched his 10.5 average, unusually steady for the position, and whose best trait, making the first tackler miss, is about as sticky as receiver skills get.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"DK Metcalf off injury report for Week 1 — Metcalf was dealing with an undisclosed injury earlier, but it's not an issue for him anymore and he is off of the injury report entirely ahead of Week 1. He goes into the season as the projected top target for the Steelers this season.","latest_at":"2026-09-09T21:24:46+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-10T10:00:03.254896+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"off injury report; top target; projected top target; not an issue; week 1","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-10T10:14:48.388682+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":null,"as_of":"2026-09-09","source":"curves-v1"}}}