# T.J. Hockenson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5844 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5844", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:02.435826+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5844", "name": "T.J. Hockenson", "team": "MIN", "pos": "TE", "age": 29, "exp": 7, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 15.6, "ros_ppg": 8.22, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 8.215300000000001, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 109, "adp": 184.5, "adp_pr": 20, "ly": { "pts": 87.3, "g": 15, "through_week": 16, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 66.0, "receptions": 51.0, "receiving_yards": 438.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 22.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 15.6, "ppg": 5.82, "ypc": 0.0, "ypt": 6.6, "ypr": 8.6, "catch_pct": 77.3, "total_yd": 438.0, "ypg": 29.2, "touches": 52.0, "first_downs": 22.0, "xfp": 83.5, "xfp_diff": 3.8, "xfp_through_week": 16, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 77.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.76, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.08, "rec_adot": 4.76, "rec_air_share": 8.26, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.12, "rec_catch_pct": 77.27, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.5 }, "ytd": { "pts": 49.2, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 32.0, "receptions": 27.0, "receiving_yards": 237.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 15.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 20.9, "ppg": 8.2, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.4, "ypr": 8.8, "catch_pct": 84.4, "total_yd": 237.0, "ypg": 39.5, "touches": 27.0, "first_downs": 15.0, "xfp": 44.0, "xfp_diff": 5.2, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 63.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.21, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.1, "rec_adot": 6.5, "rec_air_share": 18.21, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.71, "rec_catch_pct": 84.38, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5844", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:02.439219+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Markets overcorrect, and T.J. Hockenson at a 159 half-PPR ADP, TE27, reads like an overcorrection. The consensus still makes him the TE20 with 64 catches, seven spots ahead of his price, and the surviving role supports it: a 78 percent snap share that ranked 14th among tight ends and a 14.2 percent target share across 15 games of a plainly bad year. The bad year lives mostly in how he was used. Minnesota threw him a 4.8-yard aDOT (20th percentile) with a 29th-percentile air-yards share, his 8.6 yards per reception sat 33rd of 37 qualifiers, and he added nothing after the catch at minus-0.15 YAC over expected, yet he still caught 77 percent of what came his way. The picture is a player whose route depth was taken away rather than his place on the field, and at 29 you can argue either direction about which comes back first. Clearing a fourteenth-round price doesn't require the old downfield Hockenson, just 60-odd catches, and the snap count says the targets still run through him.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "T.J. Hockenson placed in concussion protocol — Hockenson left Sunday's game early against the Saints. His status heading into Week 6 is up in the air. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-12T18:26:39+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 2.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "concussion protocol; left game early; status heading week 6; up in the air", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:19:16.094099+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "out", "exp_miss_next6": 3.4987386934308384, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```