{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5045","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:22:41.972928+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"5045","name":"Courtland Sutton","team":"DEN","pos":"WR","age":31,"exp":8,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":6.78,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":6.780111111111113,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":165,"adp":80.1,"adp_pr":35,"ly":{"pts":180.7,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":124.0,"receptions":74.0,"receiving_yards":1017.0,"receiving_tds":7.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":52.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":21.2,"ppg":10.63,"ypc":null,"ypt":8.2,"ypr":13.7,"catch_pct":59.7,"total_yd":1017.0,"ypg":59.8,"touches":74.0,"first_downs":52.0,"xfp":187.8,"xfp_diff":-7.1,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":85.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.28,"rec_avg_cushion":5.28,"rec_adot":12.59,"rec_air_share":35.62,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.14,"rec_catch_pct":59.68,"rec_drops":10.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":8.1},"ytd":{"pts":30.8,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":33.0,"receptions":16.0,"receiving_yards":168.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":11.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":16.8,"ppg":4.4,"ypc":null,"ypt":5.1,"ypr":10.5,"catch_pct":48.5,"total_yd":168.0,"ypg":24.0,"touches":16.0,"first_downs":11.0,"xfp":53.5,"xfp_diff":-22.7,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":76.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.9,"rec_avg_cushion":5.5,"rec_adot":11.99,"rec_air_share":31.5,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.44,"rec_catch_pct":48.48,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":9.1}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"5045","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:22:41.975664+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"unavailable","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Courtland Sutton finished 13th among wide receivers in half-PPR scoring last season on genuinely elite usage, 124 targets, a 21.3 percent target share in the 86th percentile and an 89th-percentile air-yards share, and his 2026 price is WR38 at pick 83. The skepticism has ingredients: he's 30, he dropped ten passes at an 8.1 percent rate that ranked seventh worst among qualifiers, corners crowded him all year with 9th-percentile cushion and 12th-percentile separation, and Denver's early Vegas lines imply a modest 21.3 points per game, 25th in the league. None of it stopped the production, and the expected-points model says his 181 points were almost exactly what the usage earned, a gap of only minus seven, so this wasn't touchdown luck propping up a decline. With the consensus projection at WR29 and 7.5 touchdowns, the ADP amounts to a two-round discount on last year's target volume. Alpha usage in a middling offense does eventually age out, and 30 is the age where the market starts guessing early, but workloads like his rarely vanish in one offseason, and the seventh round is a cheap place to find out.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Courtland Sutton held to four yards Sunday — Sutton had a rough day despite tying for the team lead among wide receivers with six targets. He and Bo Nix couldn't connect on several opportunities, leaving Sutton with just one catch. The volume remains encouraging, and fantasy managers shouldn't overreact to one bad game, but Sutton will need to bounce back first after his quiet Week 4 before entering starting lineups.","latest_at":"2026-10-05T19:00:59+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"held to four yards; quiet week 4; volume remains encouraging; just one catch; bounce back","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-06T19:10:23.540797+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":null}}