# Dallas Goedert — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5022 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5022", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:25:19.439989+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5022", "name": "Dallas Goedert", "team": "PHI", "pos": "TE", "age": 31, "exp": 8, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 17.9, "ros_ppg": 8.64, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 8.64388888888889, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 147, "adp": 125.1, "adp_pr": 15, "ly": { "pts": 155.1, "g": 15, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 82.0, "receptions": 60.0, "receiving_yards": 591.0, "receiving_tds": 11.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 34.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 20.0, "ppg": 10.34, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.2, "ypr": 9.8, "catch_pct": 73.2, "total_yd": 591.0, "ypg": 39.4, "touches": 60.0, "first_downs": 34.0, "xfp": 115.0, "xfp_diff": 40.1, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 84.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.31, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.99, "rec_adot": 7.11, "rec_air_share": 13.88, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.16, "rec_catch_pct": 73.17, "rec_drops": 4.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 45.8, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 31.0, "receptions": 22.0, "receiving_yards": 228.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 11.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 18.2, "ppg": 9.16, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.4, "ypr": 10.4, "catch_pct": 71.0, "total_yd": 228.0, "ypg": 45.6, "touches": 22.0, "first_downs": 11.0, "xfp": 36.2, "xfp_diff": 9.6, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 68.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.85, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.98, "rec_adot": 5.6, "rec_air_share": 10.68, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.62, "rec_catch_pct": 68.75, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.2 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5022", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:25:19.442518+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Eleven touchdowns on sixty catches made Goedert's 2025 and can't be drafted as if they repeat. Those scores, second most among tight ends, pushed him 40 points past his expected total, a 1.35 ratio and the second-largest overshoot at the position, and carried a 10.3 points-per-game average that ranked in the 94th percentile. Underneath the spike sits a solid rather than spectacular role: a 17.7 percent target share (88th percentile), an 84.6 percent snap share, and ordinary per-target efficiency at 7.2 yards. The market has already run the regression for you. Half-PPR drafters take him at 116.7 as the TE15 while the projection scores him TE9 at 146 points, and even that projection assumes 7.5 touchdowns, itself an aggressive ask. Philadelphia ranks a middling 14th by implied team totals, and at 31 he's unlikely to add new dimensions. What remains is a proven full-time tight end going two-plus rounds below his projection, where the main bust case, touchdown normalization, is largely paid for in the price.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Dallas Goedert (knee) will play Sunday — Goedert will be back from a multi-week absence. He should be a borderline TE1 with DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley both still ruled out. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T18:04:28+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-10T19:00:24.170294+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 0.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "will play sunday; back from multi-week absence; borderline te1; deonta smith ruled out; saquon barkley ruled out", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-10T19:06:48.698398+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```