{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5012","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.267647+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"5012","name":"Mark Andrews","team":"BAL","pos":"TE","age":31,"exp":8,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":8.1,"ros_ppg":7.56,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":7.557555555555556,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":137,"adp":122.3,"adp_pr":14,"ly":{"pts":107.0,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":10.0,"rushing_yards":48.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":70.0,"receptions":48.0,"receiving_yards":422.0,"receiving_tds":5.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":7.0,"receiving_first_downs":24.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":17.2,"ppg":6.29,"ypc":4.8,"ypt":6.0,"ypr":8.8,"catch_pct":68.6,"total_yd":470.0,"ypg":27.6,"touches":58.0,"first_downs":31.0,"xfp":117.0,"xfp_diff":-10.0,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":61.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.9,"rec_avg_cushion":4.71,"rec_adot":7.81,"rec_air_share":16.22,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.43,"rec_catch_pct":68.57,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.3},"ytd":{"pts":37.4,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":37.0,"receptions":26.0,"receiving_yards":204.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":12.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":18.7,"ppg":5.34,"ypc":null,"ypt":5.5,"ypr":7.8,"catch_pct":70.3,"total_yd":204.0,"ypg":29.1,"touches":26.0,"first_downs":12.0,"xfp":49.6,"xfp_diff":-10.2,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":64.9,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.24,"rec_avg_cushion":5.95,"rec_adot":6.96,"rec_air_share":16.11,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.09,"rec_catch_pct":70.27,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":8.1}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"5012","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.274864+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"unavailable","news_inference":"unavailable","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Start with the coverage charting on Andrews, because it's grim: 6th percentile in average separation, 6th percentile in cushion, meaning defenders crowded him at the line and stayed in his pocket downfield, 14th-percentile YAC over expected, a 20th-percentile catch rate, and 6 yards per target that ranked 35th of 37 qualifiers. He finished 10 points under his expected total, a 4th-percentile gap, and averaged 6.3 points a game across a full 17. The bull case has to look past all of that toward context, which is admittedly considerable. His 17.3 percent target share still sat in the 86th percentile, he led all tight ends with 48 rushing yards on 10 carries, and Baltimore owns the single best implied team total in the league at 27 points a game. The projection splits the difference at TE12 with 135 points, 7.7 touchdowns doing much of the lifting, and the half-PPR market pays 115 overall (TE14). At 30, tight coverage plus nothing after the catch plus underperformance of usage usually marks real decline rather than bad luck, so most of what you'd be drafting is the offense and the goal line, on faith.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":null,"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-09-29","source":"curves-v1"}}}