# Durham Smythe — FootballQuants player source

Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5008

Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes.

```json
{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5008",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:21:07.407554+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "5008",
    "name": "Durham Smythe",
    "team": "BAL",
    "pos": "TE",
    "age": 31,
    "exp": 8,
    "injury": "IR",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 2.52,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 2.523581648155496,
      "source": "fallback",
      "captured_at": null,
      "covered_weeks": [],
      "missing_weeks": [
        8,
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 18,
    "adp": 684.0,
    "adp_pr": 229,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 4.5,
      "g": 7,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 6.0,
      "receptions": 4.0,
      "receiving_yards": 25.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 1.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 2.8,
      "ppg": 0.64,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 4.2,
      "ypr": 6.2,
      "catch_pct": 66.7,
      "total_yd": 25.0,
      "ypg": 3.6,
      "touches": 4.0,
      "first_downs": 1.0,
      "xfp": 6.2,
      "xfp_diff": -1.7,
      "xfp_through_week": 17,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 25.4,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 16.7
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 0.9,
      "g": 3,
      "through_week": 4,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 2.0,
      "receptions": 1.0,
      "receiving_yards": 4.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 2.4,
      "ppg": 0.3,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 2.0,
      "ypr": 4.0,
      "catch_pct": 50.0,
      "total_yd": 4.0,
      "ypg": 1.3,
      "touches": 1.0,
      "first_downs": 0.0,
      "xfp": 3.1,
      "xfp_diff": -2.2,
      "xfp_through_week": 2,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 49.5,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "5008",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:21:07.410317+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Smythe's move to Baltimore is the only reason to look twice. The Ravens rank first in implied points and list him second, a much better context than the 2025 production. Last year he ranked TE77 in PPG, TE71 in targets, and TE73 in xFP across seven games. Projection TE79 is tiny, but the offense can create touchdown weeks for low-volume players. His profile is likely blocking-heavy and matchup-specific. He would need a defined red-zone or two-tight-end role before becoming a streamer, even in this elite team environment.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-20T03:01:08.390916+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Durham Smythe out for season with torn Achilles  — Smythe underwent an MRI that confirmed the injury. He was in his first season with Baltimore. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-06T18:04:47+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-07T09:00:30.592550+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": -1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
      "llm_severity": 3,
      "llm_weeks_out": 18.0,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "out for season; torn achilles; underwent an mri; first season with baltimore",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-07T09:13:25.850654+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": {
      "status": "ir",
      "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    },
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "ir",
      "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}
```