# Dalton Schultz — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5001 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5001", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:52.923230+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5001", "name": "Dalton Schultz", "team": "HOU", "pos": "TE", "age": 30, "exp": 8, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.5, "ros_ppg": 6.7, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 6.704666666666666, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 116, "adp": 206.5, "adp_pr": 25, "ly": { "pts": 136.7, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 106.0, "receptions": 82.0, "receiving_yards": 777.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 40.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 19.2, "ppg": 8.04, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.3, "ypr": 9.5, "catch_pct": 77.4, "total_yd": 777.0, "ypg": 45.7, "touches": 82.0, "first_downs": 40.0, "xfp": 136.4, "xfp_diff": 0.3, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 71.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.74, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.4, "rec_adot": 6.26, "rec_air_share": 14.57, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.07, "rec_catch_pct": 77.36, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 1.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 48.7, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 43.0, "receptions": 33.0, "receiving_yards": 322.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 12.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 18.6, "ppg": 6.96, "ypc": null, "ypt": 7.5, "ypr": 9.8, "catch_pct": 76.7, "total_yd": 322.0, "ypg": 46.0, "touches": 33.0, "first_downs": 12.0, "xfp": 53.1, "xfp_diff": -4.4, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 57.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.75, "rec_avg_cushion": 7.23, "rec_adot": 5.73, "rec_air_share": 11.11, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.5, "rec_catch_pct": 76.74, "rec_drops": 4.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 9.3 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5001", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:52.926418+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Format splits Dalton Schultz's price in a way his profile doesn't justify. Standard drafters take him around pick 98 as the TE15 while half-PPR rooms let him sit until 149, TE22, and the second group is the one mispricing a reception profile their scoring rewards. His 2025 line was built on volume near the top of the position, 106 targets (93rd percentile), 82 catches (96th), and a 19.2 percent target share, with an expected-points total that ranked seventh among tight ends and an actual total that matched it almost exactly, so none of it leaned on luck. The catches are short and safe, 9.5 yards per reception down in the 30th percentile against an 86th-percentile catch rate and a 1.9 percent drop rate, and three touchdowns kept the ceiling low. The consensus assumes no touchdown bounce and still lands at TE19 with 66 catches, three spots ahead of his half-PPR cost. Buying a locked triple-digit-target role at pick 149 is about the least stressful way to exit the position and spend your early picks elsewhere.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Dalton Schultz (rest) back at practice Thursday — After a huge performance on Sunday, Schultz received a rest day to begin the practice week. If Nico Collins remains sidelined, he'll be in line for TE1 volume once again. ", "latest_at": "2026-09-24T16:25:30+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-24T19:00:27.834491+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "back at practice; huge performance; rest day; te1 volume; nico collins sidelined", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T19:11:32.358335+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```