{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4984","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:22:51.763144+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"4984","name":"Josh Allen","team":"BUF","pos":"QB","age":30,"exp":8,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":96.1,"ros_ppg":23.82,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":23.817060000000005,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":360,"adp":20.7,"adp_pr":1,"ly":{"pts":362.6,"g":16,"through_week":17,"passing_yards":3668.0,"passing_tds":25.0,"interceptions":10.0,"carries":112.0,"rushing_yards":579.0,"rushing_tds":14.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":178.0,"rushing_first_downs":51.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":3.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":22.66,"ypc":5.2,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":4247.0,"ypg":265.4,"touches":112.0,"first_downs":51.0,"xfp":88.1,"xfp_diff":53.8,"xfp_through_week":17,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":92.2,"pass_time_to_throw":2.89,"pass_adot":7.15,"pass_aggressiveness":11.3,"pass_cpoe":1.54,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.13,"pass_rating":102.16,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":3.07,"rush_yac_att":1.95,"rush_broken_tackles":7.0,"pass_pressured_pct":17.7,"pass_bad_throw_pct":12.4,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":158.8,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":1504.0,"passing_tds":9.0,"interceptions":4.0,"carries":48.0,"rushing_yards":240.0,"rushing_tds":8.0,"targets":1.0,"receptions":1.0,"receiving_yards":1.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":66.0,"rushing_first_downs":23.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":0.6,"ppg":26.47,"ypc":5.0,"ypt":1.0,"ypr":1.0,"catch_pct":100.0,"total_yd":1745.0,"ypg":290.8,"touches":49.0,"first_downs":23.0,"xfp":40.8,"xfp_diff":31.8,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":100.0,"pass_time_to_throw":2.97,"pass_adot":8.7,"pass_aggressiveness":12.87,"pass_cpoe":2.38,"pass_air_to_sticks":0.16,"pass_rating":102.08,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":18.4,"pass_bad_throw_pct":16.1,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"4984","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:22:51.772954+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Allen's rushing production is self-made in a way the box score misses. He led every quarterback in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last season (112 for 579 and 14), and the splits underneath are the telling part: a 17th percentile yards-before-contact rate, a 97th percentile yards-after-contact rate, and a 96th percentile broken-tackle count. Buffalo's blocking gave him very little and he created the rest himself. The passing game has turned deliberately conservative, with a 25th percentile aDOT and a bottom-decile aggressiveness rate, and it works: a 90th percentile passer rating alongside bottom-fifth pressure and bad-throw rates. All of it added up to 23.3 points per game (half-PPR), the best per-game mark at the position, and Vegas has Buffalo fifth in average implied team total on early lines. His third-round cost as the consensus QB1 asks you to believe a 30-year-old keeps absorbing 112 carries and turning them into a league-best touchdown total, which is a bet on a goal-line role no other quarterback gets rather than on efficiency luck, and roles that entrenched rarely disappear in a single offseason.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Josh Allen rushes for 121 yards, TD in Week 5 win — Allen didn't have his best passing game but he dominated the Rams on the ground in the thrilling Monday night win as he easily set a season-high in rushing yards. His lone touchdown pass went to Keon Coleman in the third quarter. Allen has thrown for 1,249 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions through five games this season. He will remain a top-three fantasy quarterback heading into Week 6 against the Raiders.","latest_at":"2026-10-13T09:24:21+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"season-high rushing yards; top-three fantasy quarterback; rushes for 121 yards; dominant on the ground; lone touchdown pass","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:07:07.602280+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-09-30","source":"curves-v1"}}}