# Baker Mayfield — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4892 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4892", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:58.488436+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "4892", "name": "Baker Mayfield", "team": "TB", "pos": "QB", "age": 31, "exp": 8, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 2.2, "ros_ppg": 14.45, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 14.451355555555555, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 269, "adp": 152.9, "adp_pr": 18, "ly": { "pts": 267.9, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 3693.0, "passing_tds": 26.0, "interceptions": 11.0, "carries": 55.0, "rushing_yards": 382.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 172.0, "rushing_first_downs": 29.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 15.76, "ypc": 6.9, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 4075.0, "ypg": 239.7, "touches": 55.0, "first_downs": 29.0, "xfp": 26.4, "xfp_diff": 17.8, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 97.1, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.85, "pass_adot": 8.09, "pass_aggressiveness": 16.39, "pass_cpoe": -1.67, "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.69, "pass_rating": 90.58, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": 5.11, "rush_yac_att": 1.84, "rush_broken_tackles": 7.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 14.3, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 15.2, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 41.8, "g": 4, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 679.0, "passing_tds": 3.0, "interceptions": 2.0, "carries": 12.0, "rushing_yards": 66.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 29.0, "rushing_first_downs": 5.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 10.45, "ypc": 5.5, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 745.0, "ypg": 186.2, "touches": 12.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 8.3, "xfp_diff": 4.3, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 96.0, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.96, "pass_adot": 8.3, "pass_aggressiveness": 12.15, "pass_cpoe": -0.62, "pass_air_to_sticks": -1.45, "pass_rating": 83.04, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 23.0, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 14.7, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "4892", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:58.491188+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "stale", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Playing through a sprained MCL and PCL from Week 3 on, plus a biceps contusion that sapped his throwing velocity and a late-season left shoulder injury, Mayfield still averaged 16.4 points per game with 26 touchdown passes and 382 rushing yards. That context reframes the softest number in his profile, a minus-1.6 CPOE that would otherwise read as decline, since a compromised throwing arm is the simpler explanation. The parts of his game the injuries could not reach stayed elite: he kept a 90th-percentile aggressiveness rate, led all qualified quarterbacks at 6.9 yards a carry, broke seven tackles as a runner, third most at the position, and took pressure on a league-low 14.3% of dropbacks. His price has drifted to QB20 near pick 142 even though the consensus projects QB18 at 282 points, a modest discount on a player who kept producing on a bad knee. The beat reporting says he heads into the season at full health, which makes the 2025 line read like a floor demonstration rather than his ceiling.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Baker Mayfield (thumb) misses practice again Wednesday — With the Buccaneers playing Thursday night, Mayfield is on track to miss a second straight game due to a thumb injury, as he has not practiced this week. Jalon Daniels is in line to start at QB once again. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-07T14:50:58+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-07T19:00:23.532123+00:00", "llm_sentiment": null, "llm_injury_trajectory": null, "llm_severity": null, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": null, "llm_key_phrases": null, "llm_role_change": null, "llm_usage_outlook": null, "llm_team_context": null, "llm_relevance": null, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-07T09:03:58.773085+00:00", "llm_model": null, "inference_status": "stale" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "out", "exp_miss_next6": 3.500889051272683, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```