{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4892","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.792078+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"4892","name":"Baker Mayfield","team":"TB","pos":"QB","age":31,"exp":8,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":2.2,"ros_ppg":14.45,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":14.451355555555555,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":269,"adp":152.9,"adp_pr":18,"ly":{"pts":267.9,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":3693.0,"passing_tds":26.0,"interceptions":11.0,"carries":55.0,"rushing_yards":382.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":172.0,"rushing_first_downs":29.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":3.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":15.76,"ypc":6.9,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":4075.0,"ypg":239.7,"touches":55.0,"first_downs":29.0,"xfp":26.4,"xfp_diff":17.8,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":97.1,"pass_time_to_throw":2.85,"pass_adot":8.09,"pass_aggressiveness":16.39,"pass_cpoe":-1.67,"pass_air_to_sticks":-0.69,"pass_rating":90.58,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":5.11,"rush_yac_att":1.84,"rush_broken_tackles":7.0,"pass_pressured_pct":14.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":15.2,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":41.8,"g":4,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":679.0,"passing_tds":3.0,"interceptions":2.0,"carries":12.0,"rushing_yards":66.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":29.0,"rushing_first_downs":5.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":3.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":10.45,"ypc":5.5,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":745.0,"ypg":186.2,"touches":12.0,"first_downs":5.0,"xfp":8.3,"xfp_diff":4.3,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":96.0,"pass_time_to_throw":2.96,"pass_adot":8.3,"pass_aggressiveness":12.15,"pass_cpoe":-0.62,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.45,"pass_rating":83.04,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":23.0,"pass_bad_throw_pct":14.7,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"4892","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:37.802860+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"stale","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Playing through a sprained MCL and PCL from Week 3 on, plus a biceps contusion that sapped his throwing velocity and a late-season left shoulder injury, Mayfield still averaged 16.4 points per game with 26 touchdown passes and 382 rushing yards. That context reframes the softest number in his profile, a minus-1.6 CPOE that would otherwise read as decline, since a compromised throwing arm is the simpler explanation. The parts of his game the injuries could not reach stayed elite: he kept a 90th-percentile aggressiveness rate, led all qualified quarterbacks at 6.9 yards a carry, broke seven tackles as a runner, third most at the position, and took pressure on a league-low 14.3% of dropbacks. His price has drifted to QB20 near pick 142 even though the consensus projects QB18 at 282 points, a modest discount on a player who kept producing on a bad knee. The beat reporting says he heads into the season at full health, which makes the 2025 line read like a floor demonstration rather than his ceiling.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Baker Mayfield (thumb) misses practice again Wednesday — With the Buccaneers playing Thursday night, Mayfield is on track to miss a second straight game due to a thumb injury, as he has not practiced this week. Jalon Daniels is in line to start at QB once again. ","latest_at":"2026-10-07T14:50:58+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-07T19:00:23.532123+00:00","llm_sentiment":null,"llm_injury_trajectory":null,"llm_severity":null,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":null,"llm_key_phrases":null,"llm_role_change":null,"llm_usage_outlook":null,"llm_team_context":null,"llm_relevance":null,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-07T09:03:58.773085+00:00","llm_model":null,"inference_status":"stale"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.500889051272683,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}