# Saquon Barkley — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4866 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4866", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.741718+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "4866", "name": "Saquon Barkley", "team": "PHI", "pos": "RB", "age": 29, "exp": 8, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 49.5, "ros_ppg": 11.83, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 11.830777777777778, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 244, "adp": 10.1, "adp_pr": 6, "ly": { "pts": 211.8, "g": 16, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 280.0, "rushing_yards": 1140.0, "rushing_tds": 7.0, "targets": 50.0, "receptions": 37.0, "receiving_yards": 273.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 50.0, "receiving_first_downs": 11.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 11.6, "ppg": 13.24, "ypc": 4.1, "ypt": 5.5, "ypr": 7.4, "catch_pct": 74.0, "total_yd": 1413.0, "ypg": 88.3, "touches": 317.0, "first_downs": 61.0, "xfp": 237.4, "xfp_diff": -23.6, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 78.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 30.71, "rush_time_to_los": 2.96, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.24, "rush_efficiency": 4.09, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.37, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.54, "rush_yac_att": 1.54, "rush_broken_tackles": 19.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 35.1, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 43.0, "rushing_yards": 244.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 9.0, "receptions": 6.0, "receiving_yards": 17.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 9.0, "receiving_first_downs": 2.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 6.5, "ppg": 7.02, "ypc": 5.7, "ypt": 1.9, "ypr": 2.8, "catch_pct": 66.7, "total_yd": 261.0, "ypg": 52.2, "touches": 49.0, "first_downs": 11.0, "xfp": 37.6, "xfp_diff": -2.5, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 36.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 11.63, "rush_time_to_los": 3.08, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 1.81, "rush_efficiency": 3.42, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.5, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 3.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 11.1 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "4866", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.785931+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "current", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Philadelphia kept Saquon Barkley's role fully intact last season, a 78 percent snap share that ranked third among all backs, 280 carries, 317 touches. The production under it sagged to 13.2 a game because the per-touch conversion disappeared: his scoring came in 26 points below what the usage was worth, one of the four worst gaps at the position, alongside 4.1 a carry, 12th-percentile yards after contact, and a 74 percent catch rate near the bottom of qualified backs. A rebound argument built on opportunity is legitimate here, since opportunity is the part he kept, and the consensus projects him back to 245 points and RB10 on nearly 296 carries. At 15.4 in half-PPR the market pays that projection in full, no age discount included, for a 29-year-old with eight seasons of tread whose after-contact yardage, the number that usually announces a big back's decline, just posted its warning. You're drafting the role and betting the runner reappears inside it, and at this price a mere repeat of 2025 loses the pick.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Saquon Barkley (hamstring/back) off injury report for Week 8 — Saquon Barkley (hamstring/back) is off of the injury report and will play for in Week 8 for the Philadelphia Eagles against the Washington Commanders according to Tom Pelissero.", "latest_at": "2026-10-30T20:09:42+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "off injury report; will play week 8; hamstring back; cleared to play", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-31T23:04:10.213610+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 2.157182798348736, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```