# Matthew Stafford — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/421 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/421", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:18:57.315640+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "421", "name": "Matthew Stafford", "team": "LAR", "pos": "QB", "age": 38, "exp": 17, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 14.0, "ros_ppg": 15.77, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 15.766977777777779, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 285, "adp": 106.0, "adp_pr": 12, "ly": { "pts": 350.4, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 4707.0, "passing_tds": 46.0, "interceptions": 8.0, "carries": 29.0, "rushing_yards": 1.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 236.0, "rushing_first_downs": 3.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 20.61, "ypc": 0.0, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 4708.0, "ypg": 276.9, "touches": 29.0, "first_downs": 3.0, "xfp": 9.5, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 98.5, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.8, "pass_adot": 9.16, "pass_aggressiveness": 19.26, "pass_cpoe": 2.03, "pass_air_to_sticks": 1.08, "pass_rating": 109.2, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 18.7, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 18.0, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 123.4, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 1989.0, "passing_tds": 14.0, "interceptions": 7.0, "carries": 14.0, "rushing_yards": 18.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 99.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 17.63, "ypc": 1.3, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 2007.0, "ypg": 286.7, "touches": 14.0, "first_downs": 2.0, "xfp": 6.0, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 4, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 97.7, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.73, "pass_adot": 7.94, "pass_aggressiveness": 14.39, "pass_cpoe": 1.99, "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.97, "pass_rating": 94.24, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 17.0, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 14.8, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "421", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:18:57.318768+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Stafford led the league with 46 touchdown passes and 4,707 passing yards at age 38, finished second among quarterbacks in total points, and the market's answer is a tenth-round pick. The shape of the skepticism is easy to reconstruct: one rushing yard all season means everything rides on passing volume and touchdown rate, and the consensus projection duly strips him to 34 touchdowns and a QB15 rank that his QB15 price matches almost exactly. The charting says the season was earned rather than lucked into, with a 96th percentile air-yards-to-sticks figure, a 93rd percentile aggressiveness rate, and the position's second-best passer rating, a 38-year-old still attacking past the marker and winning. The Rams also hold a top-three implied team total on early lines. Nobody is asking you to pay for a repeat, since even a heavy regression lands close to the price, while the scenario where the touchdown rate only half-regresses comes along free. The strangest number in his profile is the 2QB market, where he drifts to QB25 against a QB15 projection, the deepest format markdown anywhere in this range.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Matthew Stafford throws three TDs in Week 5 loss — Stafford turned in a huge game in the Monday night loss to Buffalo, but he couldn't put any points on the board in overtime. The veteran quarterback threw two touchdown passes to Davante Adams, while his third went to Puka Nacua. Stafford has now thrown for 1,572 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions through five games. He will be a solid QB1 in fantasy in Week 6 vs. the Cardinals.", "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:49:52+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "throws three tds; solid qb1; week 6; nine touchdowns; six interceptions", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:15:17.935599+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```